Go for the overcall or the throat? KJo

[StellarWind]

Party 5/10 6-max (6 players)

Hero is BB with K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Preflop: UTG calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop (3 SB): J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets and both call.

Turn (3 BB): 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets and both call.

River (6 BB) 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero ???

SB is 39/12. His stats show a player who is pretty aggressive on the flop, very aggressive on the turn, and he bets the river a shocking 2/3 of the time with many raises as well. Needless to say I don't really believe him but of course accidents happen.

UTG is a 76/10 fish. As 76/10 fish go he doesn't call the river that much.

[tolbiny]

I say go for the throat. The 76/10 player, while he doesn't go to showdown that much, doesn't have to call very often to make it sig better than the overcall (especially since he will fold his missed draws here anyway).
While getting three bet sucks since you have to call this palyer, it appears that it sucks less than usuall given his description.

[spydog]

I overcall. If he's bluffing, he isn't going to call your raise. Plus, he could easily have played a 2 this passively and now wants to take a bet/3-bet line on the river. UTG may not call many rivers, but he called the flop and turn with something, so why wouldn't he call the river. It's not like he's got a busted draw. I think he will call here.

[obsidian]

[ QUOTE ]
I overcall. If he's bluffing, he isn't going to call your raise. Plus, he could easily have played a 2 this passively and now wants to take a bet/3-bet line on the river. UTG may not call many rivers, but he called the flop and turn with something, so why wouldn't he call the river. It's not like he's got a busted draw. I think he will call here.

[/ QUOTE ]
SB has perfect position to c/r the field with a 2 here. This looks more like a 3, 4, or mid-pp to me. Raise.

[Danenania]

Isn't your PF equity edge too pronounced to miss a raise here?.

On the river I like the overcall approach, the kicker being that it seems SB will just fold a bluff quite often when you raise, and even if UTG tends to fold the river more than his 76/10 ilk, he is still probably calling with plenty of hands behind you.

[obsidian]

Oh yea, and raise PF.

[Wynton]

I vote for overcall. Aside from what was said, I think it's at least a possibility that neither player will call a raise.

[gaming_mouse]

raise PF. call the river.

[tolbiny]

yeah, its a possibility- but there is a possibility that both players will clal a raise- ++++++++++++Ev.

[tolbiny]

Hey Stellar, can you give us a line on what his c/r stats look like/what a c/r would mean to you?
A lot of the time what he didn't do is worth as much info wise as what he did.