Marginal overpair - wait till the turn ?

Isura · #1 09-20-2005, 12:38 PM

Villain sat down a few orbits ago, no reads. He bought in for less than the max. I'm toast against another overpair, but my equity will drastically change on the turn. Call and play a safe turn card strong, or is my line better?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

CO ($104.60)
Hero ($199.40)
SB ($34.35)
BB ($60)
UTG ($133.55)
MP ($450.98)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, MP calls $1, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, BB calls $4, MP calls $4, CO folds.

Flop: ($16.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets $7, MP folds, Hero raises to $25, BB calls $48 (All-In), Hero calls $30

#2 09-20-2005, 12:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain sat down a few orbits ago, no reads. He bought in for less than the max. I'm toast against another overpair, but my equity will drastically change on the turn. Call and play a safe turn card strong, or is my line better?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

CO ($104.60)
Hero ($199.40)
SB ($34.35)
BB ($60)
UTG ($133.55)
MP ($450.98)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, MP calls $1, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, BB calls $4, MP calls $4, CO folds.

Flop: ($16.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets $7, MP folds, Hero raises to $25, BB calls $48 (All-In), Hero calls $30

[/ QUOTE ]

With 88, I fold.

EMcWilliams · #3 09-20-2005, 01:03 PM

Is that not a big raise with 88? sure you are on the button, but it just seems like a lot. BB has a least an overpair, the question is "55-77?" or "99-JJ". I think you are beat here and arent getting too special of odds. Lay it down.

Isura · #4 09-20-2005, 02:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Is that not a big raise with 88? sure you are on the button, but it just seems like a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you mean preflop or on the flop? I just raised the size of pot on the flop.. (although it is indeed 1/2 of villain's stack).

[ QUOTE ]

BB has a least an overpair, the question is "55-77?" or "99-JJ". I think you are beat here and arent getting too special of odds. Lay it down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Couldn't he have 2 overcards + a flush draw? Will players at this level make this move with KTs or even stuff like 98s? I haven't played enough at the .5/1 games yet, so maybe I'm not giving villain enough credit...Getting 3:1 I figured I should call the push even if I'm dominated 35% of the time.

But I guess my initial flop action is more questionable given his small stack. Any more thoughts?

#5 09-20-2005, 02:59 PM

pocket pairs less than T, usually need help on the flop. the general rule is to fold small pocket pairs if i don't hit a set on the flop (yes, there are some exceptions to the rule).

so, you have overcards but: 1) the board is paired and 2)your overcards are weak (what happens if 9 thorugh Ace show up on the turn/river?).