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#1
09-20-2005, 12:51 PM
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Football commentary
I see some others are posting their thoughts on games after the fact. I posted the following in my blog the other day, if anyone is interested:
Interesting week of football - I should know, I watched a bunch. But I suppose every week is interesting. The general level of play in the NFL seems to poor so far. Tons of penalties and turnovers. Maybe it like this at the start of every season, but it seems exceptionally sloppy this year. I did not see as much NCAA as NFL, but a couple things stood out to me from Saturday's play. Even though I bet against Utah, and I won the bet - I was really impressed by what I saw from that team. I like their QB and after seeing that game, I feel lucky to have won that bet. Although TCU is no slouch either. But I will keep following Utah and may look for a chance to bet on them. They may still be under-appreciated. Another team to keep an eye on when they are playing at home may be Arizona. I bet against them and lost the bet by .5 point. After I put my bet in I had a few people tell me they like AZ in this game, so I kept a close eye on it to see if I had overrated Purdue or underestimated AZ. I clearly underestimated AZ. I did not expect them to be able score like they did vs. Purdue. Since they hired the new coach there they have given several good teams tough games at home. I have not bet any Wisconsin games this year, but I think they may be a little underrated so far. Certainly it will be match up dependent. But I would look for them to overpower the lower half of the Big Ten and win a lot of lower scoring games against those teams. Against the better teams though, I think they will be over matched at the speed and skill positions and could give up a lot of points against teams like Michigan, Iowa, and Purdue. I may look at playing some WI totals based on this theory. I will get a closer look at this team on Saturday in Madison. I had a suspicion my UNLV pick was not sound, and I was right. I was fooled by their offense's success in the first two games. They are improved, but how could they not be. They were one of the worst teams in D-1 last year. Future plays on this team may be on totals against the weaker Mountain West teams. NCAA year-to-date = 7-5-0 +1.55 units. The NFL is always fascinating to me. I watched a bunch of games today with a guy I used to work with who was in town. I met him down at a sportsbook and watched parts of every Sunday game. As I am a Packer fan I tend to focus on them and their division foes more than other teams. As for the Packers - they are substantially worse than last year's mediocre team. They made the playoffs last season, but the team was not as good as their record indicated. They needed 4 last-second, game-winning field goals from their kicker last year and they were bitch-slapped at home by another mediocre team - the Vikings - in the playofs. So from this average team of 2004, they lost 2 Pro-Bowl caliber guards who were the reason they were able to run the ball effectively. I used be so impressed by the play of these guys (Whale and Rivera). Whale may have been the best and most athletic guard I have ever seen. He would absolutely destroy defenders on screens and pulls. He was also able to get combination blocks like nobody I have ever seen. I remember one play where he pulled, chipped the end, pushed a LB out of the way and then pancaked a safety. The guy is/was awesome. But he plays for Carolina now. Both were also very stout in pass protection as well. The players they replaced them with are well below average at that position and the rookie, Whittaker, is terrible. The center, Flanagan, was exceptional a couple years ago - but it seems injury has caught up with him and he not a very good player anymore. Of course these players could improve or play better as the year goes on, but I don't think that will be the case. The Packers will not be able to run much this year and without Walker, it will be much tougher for them to pass. I would not expect much from this offense or this team the rest of the year. I am looking forward to some betting opportunities when they play against teams who have good defensive tackles - like the Bears. I think they will give the Pack fits. As for the Bears. Their defense may be in the top five, or top three, in the whole league. I really like Kyle Orton and the Bears coaching staff is solid now with Smith. This team could really make a move this year if Orton can continue to avoid turnovers. Their offensive line and receivers are not very good though, so they will have trouble scoring points, this week notwithstanding. I expect them to win 8 or 9 games this year and play a lot of close games so I will be looking to play the Bears at home this year and some unders when they are on the road. The Lions are in for another poor season. Harrington is not very good, and never will be. I expected him to have a big game vs. Green Bay - like every QB does - and he was barely adequate in that game. Dilfer looked like a Hall-of-Famer against the Pack this week. Anyway, this team can compete at home, but they are something like 3-33 on the road with Harrington. I love their RB, Jones, but with a bad QB smart defenses will load up to stop him. It is too bad for this team the Garcia was injured. Even though he is somewhat limited by his weak arm, he is mobile and experienced. If he was available it may have made a difference for them. Their defense is solid so I will look to go against this team when they are on the road and some unders when they are home. The Vikings are one of my favorite teams to watch. For years they have been loaded with talent, but could not make it work. Trading Moss was a big risk and I admired the courage of the organization for making the move. They did not think they could win with him, so they took a gamble. Moss has been one of, if not, the best player in the league since his rookie year. I would not be surprised if he already has more 50 yd+ TDs in NFL history. My point is they lost a unique talent in Moss, one of the greatest players of all-time. On top of that, they lost their offensive coordinator Linehan, their All-Pro center Birk, and are starting a rookie at guard. Like the Packers, the Vikings are going struggle with their interior offensive line and have a tough time running. Cullpepper is going to have to get it done without any real talent around him. He is off to a terrible start, but I still think he is a good player. I expect their defense to get it together and play better as the season goes on and for Cullpepper to be fine. That said, I think their offense is overrated and the defense underrated so I will be looking to play more unders with this team and play against them when they play AFC teams. 
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