Semi-bluff raise turn?

[deception5]

Hi all,

Was reading through "Weighing the Odds" again and there's one concept which makes a lot of sense to me but I'm having trouble figuring out when to apply it. The example if memory serves is something like:

Hero has A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Raise, BB calls.

Flop: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

BB bets, hero calls.

Turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB bets, hero raises.

My question is what criteria would you use to determine if calling is better than raising? Basically a combination of folding equity versus aggression (likelyhood of being 3-bet)?

Appreciate the help!

I think you can only do this against a weak tight opponent. Doing it against a bad or good player is not going to work often enough. FWIW, I think you have alot more fold equity if the turn is an overcard like a king or queen. I don't think we have to worry about getting three bet often enough for that to be a huge consideration.

[paperboyNC]

The more aggressive my opponent is, the more inclined I'd be to raise the turn because my ace high might be good!

It could allow for a free showdown on the river of my ace high.

You should rarely do it as a bluff because you will rarely fold better hands.

You should also only call the flop if you plan to call the turn and river, regardless.

Finally, you have the best hand quite often on the turn.

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
The more aggressive my opponent is, the more inclined I'd be to raise the turn because my ace high might be good!

It could allow for a free showdown on the river of my ace high.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, but isn't there a good chance here that you're losing an extra bet from a hand that you beat when they fold the turn and costing yourself an extra 1 when you are behind (since you have to fold to a river bet after a turn 3-bet)?

[deception5]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you can only do this against a weak tight opponent. Doing it against a bad or good player is not going to work often enough. FWIW, I think you have alot more fold equity if the turn is an overcard like a king or queen. I don't think we have to worry about getting three bet often enough for that to be a huge consideration.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd fold to the flop bet of a weak/tight player though.

I guess it would depend on the preflop action and how big the pot is. A weak tight player might bet top pair on the flop, and you might have odds to call on the flop.

But in general those are the only type of players that you have enough fold equity enough against.