TT

[Gene2x]

Down to last 8 tables out of 170. Need to be in last 3 tables for money. My stack: 25,000. Two players limp for 800 each from early and middle position. Both have about 25,000 chips. They play a lot of hands. Pot is 2,800. 4 players still to act including blinds.

I don't put either player on KK, QQ, or JJ since they would have raised to scare out weak Aces. I don't put the second limper on AA since he would have raised the pot with one limper already in the pot.

Most likely holdings of these players: Medium to small pairs, Ax, Kx, suited connectors. I've noticed that 3x to 5x raises of the BB don't seem to scare out hands like KQs, AJs, or even QTs.

I raise to 5,000 with TT in the hole. The pot is now at 7,800 and the limpers would have to put in 4,200 to call. The pot is offering about 1.8 to 1. I have 20,000 left, so the implied odds are about 6.6 to 1.

Everyone folds back to the first limper. He flat calls. Second limper folds.

I've been playing tight, so, if the caller has been observant he has to be putting me on a premium holding such as AA, KK, QQ, JJ, Aks, AK, AQs.

He (first limper) had to figure that the second second limper was going to fold. If he had AA, AKs, or AK he would have re-raised or gone all-in.

His flat call tells me he is most likely playing a medium to small pair and figures me for AKs, AK, AQs, or AQ. There's a chance he's playing AJs, KQs, or KJs but since he'd most likely think he's dominated with these hands, a pair is more probable.

This tells me, assuming he has a medium-small pair, that he made a bad play by calling since neither the pot nor implied odds were sufficient for him to try for a set.

Flop is 5-3-2 rainbow. He checks.

Pot is 11,200. We both have 20,000 (he has slightly more).

If he's holding Ax, I want him out of the pot. I can't slow-play and risk a 3 hitting the board.

I bet 9,000. He thinks for a long time then calls.

Why did he only call? If he's got a pair and is putting me on AKs/AK, or AQs/AQ, then he would have raised. Since he made a bad call pre-flop to begin with, I don't put making another bad call past him. He could still be playing a medium-small pair.

Does he have a set? There's an 8-1 chance he did if he was playing 55, 33, or 22. If he's got 66 or 44 he could be hoping for a straight if he's figuring me for an overpair.

Turn is 5-3-2-J. Pot is now 29,200.

We have 11,000 left each. He bets 3,000.

I don't believe the J could have been any help to him. At this point I believe he's either got a set or trying to represent a pair of J's.

Given his too loose pre-flop play and bad pot-odds decisions, I figure the odds are 1-1 that I'm facing a set. The pot has 32,000 in it and is offering me 11-1. I have to call or raise. If he's got a set, he's going to put me all-in on the river if I just call now. He's going to go all-in on the river even if he doesn't have set. If I raise all-in now, I have a chance to take the pot if he's on a draw or playing a smaller pair.

I go all-in.

River is a 5-3-2-J-9.

Before turning over the cards. What do you think of my thinking process and how I played the hand?

[nath]

Here's my analysis:

First, the first statement here contradicts the next two:

[ QUOTE ]
His flat call tells me he is most likely playing a medium to small pair and figures me for AKs, AK, AQs, or AQ.


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I've noticed that 3x to 5x raises of the BB don't seem to scare out hands like KQs, AJs, or even QTs.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's holding Ax, I want him out of the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

First, how can you be so sure he does in fact have a pair when you also say that raises don't push out marginal hands-- is it because you raised 6xBB? Has that done the trick in the past at this table for clearing out AJs, KQs, etc.? (For the record, it's a bigger preflop raise than I would make, though not susbstantially so.)

Second, if you do indeed think he has a pair lower than TT, why did you bet the flop like you were worried about Ax? You said it was least likely, based on your analysis (although I noticed you made no mention of AQ as a possible holding). Even Ax where X is bigger than your tens has only 9 outs here. A bet of around half the pot more than suits your purposes.

I don't think you need to bet this flop like you are scared. Plus, with a 9k bet, you're completely committing yourself, and possibly him (since he can't fold your push on the turn given those odds-- 8k to play for 35k or something like that).

If you bet 5,000 and he calls, the pot is 21k. If he then checks the turn and you go all-in, he has to call 14k (and virtually his whole stack) for 35k-- not appealing with one card to come for any overcards, and it makes a sticky decision for those mid pairs (and hopefully they make the wrong one). If he does that 3k lead again, your push is still 11k at 38k-- not great but an improvement (you will more than likely be called by middle pairs now).

I do think the flat call on the flop eliminates any high card possibilities. I agree with your turn analysis; he's either got a pair or a set, and no, I don't know which. (If he's got a set, he knows from your flop bet that you will hang yourself here. If he has a medium pair, he's trying to see it down cheaply.) Yes, I think you go all in on the turn. The critical question there is have you seen him limp-call a very large raise preflop with a very small pair? I suspect not, even if they have done so with drawing hands.

My best guess is that he had 88 or 99 (and if he had 99, man, that sucks). Outside chance of JJ.

[Gene2x]

Thanks for your analysis. Let me digest it for a while.

The Result:

He had 33 for a set and knocked me out of the tourney.

[nath]

33? Wow. I'd make a note that he's willing to call off 1/5 of his stack in the mid-late stages with 33 OOP preflop.