How would you go about explaining this theory to a friend?

[Python49]

I've been trying to explain to my friend the concept of a true win rate and expected value but it seems as though he's not understanding. His goal is to make $100 a day and i've explained to him that if he wants to make $100 on average he will need to play a certain # of hands per day based on his win rate. He thinks theres someway though to cheat his true long term win rate by if he gets on and plays for 30mins playing only a small amount of hands, winning the $100 and logging off. I try to explain why really based on his true win rate he didnt win that full $100 since he ran well above his win rate and that he'll still need to log the hands at some point to make what he wants to in the long run. Logging the necessary number of hands to balance out the times he runs bad and times he runs well. I just am not very good at explaining it, although I understand the concept. Can anyone else explain it better?

[Quicksilvre]

Sounds like your friend is trying to hit and run his way to profit. This article by Rolf Slotboom goes over why that doesn't work.

[Alex/Mugaaz]

Though this may lead to further logical errors, show him a random graph that trends upwards. Show him a random peak before it goes downward. Ask him what his hourly rate would be here. If he's stupid enough to believe in the old man because of this - he should quit poker.

[benkahuna]

Your explanation is good. Your friend just refuses to believe his win rate is as low as you think. He'll eventually learn, don't worry. He probably even understands averages, he just doesn't understand how variance in poker works and what the expected win rates are for different limits.

If he refuses to believe you, there's nothing you can do. Let it go. You tried and that's all you can do.

Show him all your HH's from when your KK lost to AA, as well as when your AA lost ot KK. That should pique his interest a bit.

Well, he won't be your friend for very long, but you could deal blackjack to him, and see how long he lasts.

The big example here should really be games that have negative EV, but can spike positive. That makes for a very distinct difference.

[UATrewqaz]

Doesnt' he understand that "winning $100 a day" is a very reasonable goal, but he will not actually win $100 a day?

Does he not understand the simple concept of an average?

If you wish to average an 85 in a class to make a B that does not mean you should try to make 85 on every test/quiz.

Example:

If on the first test there were 100 problems, each worth 1 point, and for whatever reason you were confident you got hte first 85 right, should you turn in the other 15 blank because you achieved your goal of 85? Of course not, because the next test might not be so easy and you could easily get say a 75-80 on it.

If your friend cannot grasp the concept of EV and the law of large number he will never succeed at poker.

[InfernoLL]

Just ask him what he thinks will happen the first time he has a losing session. If he intends to just keep playing until he's either up $100 for the day or broke, tell him it's a good idea and then laugh at him if he goes broke. Why does everyone try to prevent people from walking into folly? If someone insists that they can fly, they deserve to die falling off the cliff.

[Kaeser]

[ QUOTE ]
Just ask him what he thinks will happen the first time he has a losing session. If he intends to just keep playing until he's either up $100 for the day or broke, tell him it's a good idea and then laugh at him if he goes broke. Why does everyone try to prevent people from walking into folly? If someone insists that they can fly, they deserve to die falling off the cliff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Spoken like a true friend.

[KidPokerX]

Tell him to try it out. It will not work and he will see.