Is there a way to protect this set of Tens?

Student Caine · #1 09-25-2005, 03:16 AM

No reads on anyone except MP2 who is an 80/.57/.39 over 174 hands.

Does anyone see any way that I can protect this set of 10's? I figured with the flop action initiating directly to my left I was better off raising when I had the equity in a large pot than waiting for the turn where I wouild probably bet anyways for fear of it being checked through.

Also, does anyone not bet the river or fold to the raise? I don't think I fold to the raise, but I was questioning whether or not I should bet out with a 4-straight and a player that will play anything.

Party Poker 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 1 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 folds, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB calls, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (16.00 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls, SB calls, Hero raises, UTG calls, MP2 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (12.00 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG folds, MP2 calls, SB calls.

River: (15.00 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP2 raises, SB folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 19.00 BB.

thesharpie · #2 09-25-2005, 03:38 AM

Looks good. Even if you lead and UTG raises they're still getting ~10 to 1, so I prefer the checkraise. Can't fold this river for 1 more bet.

TomBrooks · #3 09-25-2005, 03:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone see any way that I can protect this set of 10's?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yep.

- Don't three bet preflop. (I don't like three-betting TT OOP from the blinds anyway. Am I wrong to feel this way?)

- Bet the flop hoping UTG will raise you, knocking out the other players for you.

- Don't checkraise the flop after everyone else has already called one bet and therefore will not fold for one more, bloating the pot and giving anyone with a gutshot odds to call on the turn.

AS PLAYED

On the turn, you have no choice but to bet as you did.

On the river, CHECK/CALL. Another straight card just came in. Probably no one without a straight is going to call your bet anyway, but you might induce a bluff from a missed draw or two pair. Your going to get raised by a straight and your hand is too good to fold, costing you an extra bet 90% of the time when you get raised. SB will certainly fold to a bet and a raise on this board, but you might collect one more from him if you check and MP bets with a worse hand. If SB has a straight but MP doesn't, you're getting checkraised.

#4 09-25-2005, 03:48 AM

You beat 99, any 6 or 8, and the case T. You lose to any 7 or QJ, so looks like you are ahead most of the time here, especially since he plays anything, but it's close. I'm a little worried about a raise from someone with such a low aggression factor. I think betting and calling his raise is best. You don't get such a low aggression factor by bluffing all the time, so expect to lose most of the time here, but you should still be good enough for the call to be fine.

One way I use to tell whether a bet is warranted is looking at their WTSD and W$SD. If the W$SD is low and WTSD is high, then you can expect to get called by a worse hand a lot. It's hard to know by so few hands, so don't put too much weight on this, but it does help when decisions are marginal.

BTW, you can't protect anything at Party 0.5/1. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

SCfuji · #5 09-25-2005, 03:56 AM

hey student

what were your thoughts on the river

thesharpie · #6 09-25-2005, 03:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone see any way that I can protect this set of 10's?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yep.

- Don't three bet preflop. (I don't like three-betting TT OOP from the blinds anyway. Am I wrong to feel this way?)

- Bet the flop hoping UTG will raise you, knocking out the other players for you.

- Don't checkraise the flop after everyone else has already called one bet and therefore will not fold for one more, bloating the pot and giving anyone with a gutshot odds to call on the turn.

AS PLAYED

On the turn, you have no choice but to bet as you did.

On the river, CHECK/CALL. Another straight card just came in. Probably no one without a straight is going to call your bet anyway, but you might induce a bluff from a missed draw or two pair. Your going to get raised by a straight and your hand is too good to fold, costing you an extra bet 90% of the time when you get raised. SB will certainly fold to a bet and a raise on this board, but you might collect one more from him if you check and MP bets with a worse hand. If SB has a straight but MP doesn't, you're getting checkraised.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with most of this, especially the part about checking the river hoping to induce a bluff from a .39 AF. And alot of worse hands are calling a bet.

deepsquat · #7 09-25-2005, 03:58 AM

imo not betting this flop is ridiculous. You have so much equity its frightening. Im jamming this pot, there is no flush draw and the board pairing will give u the nutz, screw protecting.

I play the river the same. Bet/call is the play.

#8 09-25-2005, 04:04 AM

Lead-bet the flop and hope UTG raises you. Even if it gives other people great odds, they still might fold their weaker draws thinking you're way ahead.

Student Caine · #9 09-25-2005, 04:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
hey student

what were your thoughts on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

On the river I figured that there were a lot of worse hands that call me here, especially from a player like this one. Yes, he may have a 7, but he could have so many other cards that don't hurt me here - and he would most likely play them to the River with a pot this size.

Also, I figured that I was potentially risking 2 bets (if I got raised) to win two bets (1 from SB and 1 from MP2). I usually bet out in situations like this and I believe that it has been profitable for me to this point.

#10 09-25-2005, 04:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone see any way that I can protect this set of 10's?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yep.

- Bet the flop hoping UTG will raise you, knocking out the other players for you.

[/ QUOTE ]