2 tough river decisions

[mgsimpleton]

both hands are 2000NL on party.

hand 1 - effective stacks 2k

Hero A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5 limpers total
Flop (100) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG bets 50, Hero raises to 125, LP calls, UTG folds
Turn (400) 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero checks, LP bets 100, hero calls
River (600) A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero checks, LP bets 1000, hero folds.

comments on the line, especially the river?



hand 2 - effective stacks 1.8k

Hero (2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])
Hero limps UTG + 1, MP raises to 70, SB calls, hero calls
Flop (230) A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB checks, hero checks, MP bets 70 (uh oh?) SB folds, hero calls.
Turn (370) A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero bets 175, villain calls
River (720) T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero bets 400, villain is all in for 1100 more...???

[BobboFitos]

hand 1 is weird. villain cold calls the flop, so right away i think you're screwed. then he underbets the turn so much it's crazy. then you hit one of your outs - maybe - and he overbets. I have no idea what he has.

34, 67, A4, A3 for the straight draw - 34 if he's loose. He is in LP so I guess these are possible. However, not closing the action and awful odds after your flop raise really stifle a draw. (The possibility of them being in there)

THAT SAID, 67 gets there on the turn, (I dont see 34 betting the turn either! Especially that small!) and 34 gets there on the river. So it could be those type hand of hands value betting.

This isnt a board which lends credence to two pair, either.

How about the same hand? A8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or A8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] That kinda is what it looks to me. He cold calls the flop thinking you would've raised 99+ pf and will reevaluate if you lead the turn... However, you check, so he bets tiny to keep the lead and check behind... And on the river he gets very happy he hit two pair, doesn't think about what you could have, and overbets for value vs ???

He could also have a set. Barring read who knows if he raises 88+ to limpers or not, but on a rainbow board like this I cold call any flop raises all day long... No need to blow hands away here especially with position. He figures you're drawing dead on the turn and "milks" you with a stupid bet, then when you call it hopes you have what you had, (tptk which hits 2 pair on river) and tries to get value?

Anyway, his line is really weird, I think it's a good fold only because wtf bluffs here? This DOES seem like a split a big % of the time, but when you dont split he wins w/ 67 or 55. Good fold.

Hand 2 I dont care about your river move, I dont like your postflop plan ;P

Flop, sure, whatever but I think you hinted by his underbet that this "screams" AA or JJ. And on the turn AJ beats you, too. But this is a great turn... You're not getting too much more out of any underpairs / bluff / etc type hands, play it like he's made trips. I'd go for the turn c/r to get the rest in on the river, but I think you're really worried about higher set here.

Given whats happened on the river, and both AJ and AT beat you, decide whether he would ever value raise AK or AQ. If the answer is no, muck it and be happy. If the answer is yes, click call and be happy. Be happy.

[Lucky]

Hand 1: nice

Hand 2: Given your play, I call river. Hopefully, AK or AQ. Basically, you need to decide what your looking for. Limping with 22, you hit your set and he got his A, lets get it on, right??? When you limp in EP with small pairs, call a raise OOP, you're going to get set under set/spew a few chips even when you just miss your set. But if you're going to play this, I dont think you make a lot of money finding reasons to fold your set.

[mgsimpleton]

Hand 1 I agree with your analysis, that's why I folded.

Hand 2 - I also thought a possibility might be a runner runner flush... he would value raise a flush there right? I was just trying to figure out what his flop bet meant... sure it could mean a monster which im losing to on turn or it could mean nothing. Is runner runner flush a possibility? The thing is KQs is only logical raising hand so that beats me... unless he's a lag and is raising random spades though. Maybe I'm looking pretty hard for hands that value raise this river all in...

[flawless_victory]

i would be very tempted on both of these rivers, but i think theyre both profitable folds.

[partygirluk]

Is there any merit to blocking the river in hand one?

[mgsimpleton]

to be honest, i preferred to check call there... anything below maybe 300... but i could not for the life of me figure out a hand i was ahead of so even calling 300 seemed pretty unappealing. the A changed little except that i was then beatingf flopped 2 pair

[IHateCats]

Calling a river bet on #1 is one thing, calling a massive overbet from the turned straight is another unless you know your opponent is overly aggro and prone to overbet bluffs on the river.

On hand #2, I really don't like leading out that river the way the hand developed, especially after that weak lead by the preflop raiser on the flop which usually reeks of an inexperienced player hitting a monster of some sort. Considering how many reasonably hands for him have you beat here AA, AJ, A10, KsQs, I think anything other than check calling this river is a mistake, I don't see you getting paid off by AQ here and the AAAJJ know's he can rock and roll with the 3rd nuts with relative impunity, if he loses to quads or the royal, sfw. I just don't think leading here maxmizes from hands you beat vs being put to a horrendous decision.