which call is worse?

NYplayer · #1 09-06-2005, 08:58 AM

In which hand is my call worse? and do you call or fold in each case?

Party Poker Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
4 folds, MP3 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, MP3 raises, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (10.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets, MP3 calls,

or in this hand:

Party Poker Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $150.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: (7 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

River: (9 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets.

Final Pot: 10 BB

Pepsquad · #2 09-06-2005, 09:33 AM

I would want to know UTG+1's numbers on hand #2, but hero can't be good here even close to one out of 10 times.

#3 09-06-2005, 09:42 AM

In the first hand I would fold, as the bb's play is very consistent with having an open ender. I would only call in this situation if the BB is known to make crazy bets. With 2 people in the pot the BB is very unlikely to be bluffing.
In the 2nd hand i would call. Being one on one on the end, your opponent still could be betting the scare card with hands he was going to call with anyway or he could be totally bluffing. I expect you to lose most of the time, but given the pot odds your hand may be worth a call as a bluff catcher. If you know your opponent would never bluff in this spot than you can safely fold, but online I think you should call here.

DcifrThs · #4 09-06-2005, 09:50 AM

both hands are pretty interesting as far as the river call.

hand 1, is your 3bet pf out of the sb w/ JTs from an MP3 raiser standard? i agree this hand is 100% playable and you could 3bet it but i usually call here.

the river call here though is rough. you clearly beat MP3 no question now w/ top two, but BB has an 8 here a great deal of the time. the thing is its an overcall and a 12.5bb. your 2 pair is no good here almost every time. personally id fold that w/ no reads.

the 2nd hand on the river is HU, for 1 bet, w/ no overcall. its still almost certain villian has the ace but...ugh...both of these hands are tricky and if its a high limit you gotta suck it up and call sometimes, but these are really ugh. in the heat of battle id definately be tossing both of them. its a miracle if you win either one, but in terms of which call costs more i think its the 1st one b/c the bb is betting into 2 people, on the river after calling the whole time.

at least in the 2nd it COULD be a bluff since there is only 1 person to get to fold. but no non ace hand makes sense for UTG1.

i dont think my analysis is what you wanted to hear b/c im just talking in circles since both hands are losers now but i'll say call 2 is better even though you get better odds in call 1 b/c id rather be calling HU on the end than overcalling in that spot.

one aspect of hand 1 that makes me want to reverse my above analysis is that the BB would have to call 2 bets cold preflop w/ some kind of 8 (88 maybe ok), while there's TONS of ways for UTG1 to have an ace in hand 2 and play it exactly like that.

i guess that parameter would be a large determinant of the costs of the calls b/c otherwise hand 1 istn't that bad.

either way though, ... ugh.

Barron

DcifrThs · #5 09-06-2005, 09:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
In the first hand I would fold, as the bb's play is very consistent with having an open ender. I would only call in this situation if the BB is known to make crazy bets. With 2 people in the pot the BB is very unlikely to be bluffing.
In the 2nd hand i would call. Being one on one on the end, your opponent still could be betting the scare card with hands he was going to call with anyway or he could be totally bluffing. I expect you to lose most of the time, but given the pot odds your hand may be worth a call as a bluff catcher. If you know your opponent would never bluff in this spot than you can safely fold, but online I think you should call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

two things factor in here. the villians post flop play, and the combinatoric mathematics of their holdings.

bb here had to call 2 bets preflop. what 8 is there that does that (assujming, incorrectly at times, a FAIRLY rational villian since nyplayer doesn't play $1.00/$2.00)? 88 (6 ways), A8s (4 ways), if you start adding suited cards like 87s, 98s, T8s, J8s then we get 24 ways (since hero has JTs there's 3 ways for j8s and 3 ways for T8s) he has an 8 and we can add maybe 4 more for random 8s not counted for 28 ways (this last 4 is debateable obviously)

the 2nd hand though UTG1 opened for a raise. you're gunna hate me saying it but thats down to ATo. so suited aces its 4*4=16 + non suited aces (56-16)=48 ways he has an ace not counting AA due to posterior distributional effects.

the question now is, "would hand two UTG1 play KQ or hands like that in that manner?" KdQd clearly blows [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] but its possible.

the main point i agree with is that id rather call HU on the end than overcall multiway on the end when we are only sure to beat 1 player.

the more i type and write the more i think that the hand 1 call may be better b/c a lot fo the time an 8 semibluffs and there are many fewer ways BB has the 8 and may be betting a hand like J7s if he's play J8s b/c he KNOWS he has MP3 beat and may get hero to fold for the overcall.

yea, that seals it. hand 1 call is less expensive than hand 2 call. both combinatorically and posterior analysis wise.

Barron

MattiasL · #6 09-06-2005, 10:47 AM

IMHO, hand 2 is worse. I cant see what possible hand the opponent could have here that you beat. KQ that are not diamonds and called the turn anyway? TT? It seems very improbable.

Hand 1 I would probably call. Ok, so it is an overcall and BB probably has an eight, but two pair with the J is not impossible since you checked.

With pot odds of 12.5:1 I think this is a call.

On the other hand, what does MP3 have?
AA-QQ should reraise preflop, and an overpair might not even call. So a set is a risk. Does this cut the odds enough to make it a fold?

Still a closer decision than hand 2, I think.

sweetjazz · #7 09-06-2005, 04:37 PM

In hand 1, isn't it possible that BB is betting with a J and something else that hero beats, e.g. J7, J9, QJ, KJ?

Some people wouldn't bet out there with those hands, but I think it happens often enough to give some redeeming value to overcalling. Especially since MP3's call doesn't really scare you much; your hand is strong enough to beat most of the hands he's representing.

I just think on boards like T97, you have to consider the possibility of people playing one pair + gutshot combinations or two overcard + gutshot combinations. And for a fair number of those holdings, the J improved their hand but can't beat top two.