Question on Pot Limit and No limit Poker Big Bet hold Em quiz

[Jeebus]

In question number 5, you are playing a $5 $10 blind pot limit (I believe its pot limit, the copy of the book is at a friend's house right now) game on the bb with 22. The pot goes unraised with I think 4 or 5 callers. Flop comes 2 8 J rainbow. The sb bets out you call and a late position player raises the pot.
The book advises folding and gives calling and raises next to no points. Supposedly based on the raise you should know that the late position player has a higher set than you. I can see calling possibly and i can see raising for sure. Can someone explain how this situation makes it positive he has a higher set? Without a raise preflop you can be pretty sure there is no JJ out. The possibility exists that 88 is available but so is J8, J2, 82, something like 1010, a bluff, or even 910. Only one hand is beating you. Am i wrong to call there?

I wouldn't call here because he may have 9-10. Set against set is so rare that you gotta just pay it off. Raise the pot and hope to take it down right there.

[npc]

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Only one hand is beating you. Am i wrong to call there?

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Maybe. In most big-bet games I play in I don't think I'd fold here, but the authors are communicating something important. The complexion of these games has changed considerably since the book was written, but there are still situations in which I think that fold might be prudent, especially if you know the SB and raiser (especially) are tight, solid players.

I'm basing my analysis on your description of my hand rather than the hand itself, but, first, I think that someone calling with JJ pre-flop is a possibility. If I were on the button and three people had limped in ahead of me, I will sometimes (but by no means always) limp with 99 - JJ, especially if I think more than one player will call a pot-sized raise. So, I would not eliminate the possibility that my opponent had JJ, although I'd weigh 88 as more likely.

The problem is that there just isn't that much that a solid late-position raiser could both call with before the flop and raise with on the flop. A random player in today's big-bet game might raise with T9 here, but if you think your opponent is unlikely to make this play, then this raise has to have you a little afraid. If it makes you feel better, imagine the flop as being J72 rainbow, and then evaluate the hand from there.

I believe the strongest case for continuing is in the possibility that the SB has Jx and the raiser has AJ and would play it this way. If you think someone would make this play, then by Bayes Theorem the odds that they have AJ rather than a better set are 2 to 1. This would make me want to test the raiser by making a smallish reraise on the flop. If I get popped again, I'm probably done with the hand. Maybe Ciaffone can get away from that situation cheaper than I.

In any case, even though I am unlikely to make this play in most games these days, I believe this hand teaches a good lesson. Moreover, there still exist situations in which this would be a good play, and a complete player will be aware of them.

[amulet]

remember what dan harrington said he thinks when someone tells him they folded a set because they thought a higher set was out?....

[IggyWH]

The flop is 258 but that's meaningless as the flop you said would give you the same type situation. I think a key part of this problem is "Gary" is described as a "sound player". If you consider someone sound, you probably respect them and respect their raise.

I'm not so sure I could fold in this situation, but PL&NOP quiz problems are usually written with a good knowledge of the players you're in the hand against.

[mshalen]

JJ is not a raise pre flop hand in omaha. Unless you have two other cards that meld pretty well with a JJ then it is a mediocre hand at best.

Harrington was talking about holdem with 2 cards not omaha with 4 cards. Trips is not a hand I'd be pushing if there are draw possibilities. Given that flop the pot better has either multiple draw possibilities or trip 8 or trip J. Your trip 2s are not probably not going to standup and you could lose a stack.

[IggyWH]

[ QUOTE ]
JJ is not a raise pre flop hand in omaha. Unless you have two other cards that meld pretty well with a JJ then it is a mediocre hand at best.

Harrington was talking about holdem with 2 cards not omaha with 4 cards. Trips is not a hand I'd be pushing if there are draw possibilities. Given that flop the pot better has either multiple draw possibilities or trip 8 or trip J. Your trip 2s are not probably not going to standup and you could lose a stack.

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Unless I'm confusing this with another hand example in the book, we're talking about PL Holdem, not PLO.

[mshalen]

Sorry. Forgot the book also had some holdem in it. I originally read the book for the omaha and pot limit theory. Next time I'll pull out my copy for the reference rather than provide an off the cuff answer.

[bones]

[ QUOTE ]
remember what dan harrington said he thinks when someone tells him they folded a set because they thought a higher set was out?....

[/ QUOTE ]

Tournament poker and big bet cash game poker are 2 entirely different animals.