What to do from here?

Fryguy · #1 09-03-2005, 06:42 PM

Well, I'm over 10,000 hands at .50/1, and my winrate sucks. I'm not sure what to do from here. I've posted a few hands, and reply to hand postings from others and generally seem to be in agreement with everyone else as to what is the right play. The stats are lining up, but the winrate isn't there. I'm not really sure what else to do from this point.

http://www.randomcrappiness.net/temp/stats.JPG

Weatherhead03 · #2 09-03-2005, 06:44 PM

Play 15000 more...you could just be running bad. 10000 isnt all that much.

bozlax · #3 09-03-2005, 07:00 PM

Fry, I'm sure you've been around for long enough to have read one of these posts, already, and all the responses to it. So, to sum up:

1. 10,000 hands isn't that many, don't make judgements based on it;
2. Good stats <> good play. You may just be running bad or you may have serious leaks;
3. What do you think a bad winrate is? Most of us were in the red for the first 5K hands, or so, so if you're green you're not doing so badly;
4. QUIT WHINING OR QUIT POKER. Your choice, but keep this namby-pamby, "Oooooh, I can't beat the micros," sobbing crap to yourself.

Howzat?

istewart · #4 09-03-2005, 07:30 PM

For one, your VP$IP is a little high IMO. Although I've heard others say you can have around 22% profitably at $.5/1, so I'm not sure.

Also, your W$SD is horribly low. You might be running bad.

Thirdly, you are still beating the game for 1BB/100, so I wouldn't kill yourself because of this.

Shillx · #5 09-03-2005, 07:34 PM

You are running at least somewhat bad. The other details aren't as clear, but something is wrong when you are only winning 59% of the time that you bet the river (I'm on the other end, right about 78%). You clearly are aggressive enough, but you might be misplacing it (like this sessions MicroPoster). You could just be running super bad.

Brad

Guthrie · #6 09-03-2005, 07:59 PM

I wouldn't put too much stock in your winrate after 10K hands. I was at 3.6BB/100 at .50/1 as I approached 10K hands, and I hit a terrible downswing, and decided to stay for another 10K. I got it back up to 3.5, but it's been a roller coaster, and now as I approach 20K it's back down to 1.7.

Keep in mind that at low numbers of hands, one good or bad session can have an extreme effect on your winrate. At 10K hands I won 60BB in one session. That raised my winrate by .6BB/100 in less than an hour. Then I dumped 90BB in the next session, which lowered my winrate by -.9BB/100.

Ever win 30BB in one hand? At 10K hands, that adds .3BB/100 to your winrate. At 100K hands it's just a blip.

Fryguy · #7 09-03-2005, 09:01 PM

Well I have been running EXTREMELY badly for the past 3000 hands or so (I'm 1 for 19 if I flop a set, yes that's right I've lost 18 out of the last 19 hands in which I've flopped a set).

Still, I thought my winrate should be higher than this. I feel like I am crushing the limit (identifying weaknesses, autopilot on much of the hands I play, etc), and yet the winrate doesn't show it. I want to move up to 1/2, but the poor winrate is disheartening for it.

Fryguy · #8 09-03-2005, 10:37 PM

Well now my BB/100 is well below 1, and I'm beginning to get very worried.

Another 400 hands and I dropped .3BB. Somebody come watch me and tell me what I'm doing wrong.

I'm at a point where I can't spot any mistakes on my part, and that worries me.

Paxosmotic · #9 09-03-2005, 10:40 PM

Tighten up a little preflop and stop running bad.

Fryguy · #10 09-03-2005, 10:44 PM

I have tightened up drastically preflop. I'm in the teens and have been for a few thousand hands. I was 28ish for the first 3-4000 and it's taking a while to converge.

I just can't fathom this many losing sessions over this long of a string for this much of a loss. I know people have been breakeven or slight losers over a few thousand hands, but I've been HORRENDOUS over 4000 hands or so.