#1
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WTF do I do here? Frozen with 10 10
This is my VERY first hand at the table and I land in the big blind. Pot is $560 when it gets to me, giving me ~4:1 odds. The only thing I do know is that CO (original raiser) is bad but can't recall anything else about him. I have no other reads whatsoever.
6max NL400 HERO (BB-$400) UTG ($168) All other stacks are essentially $400 HERO: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG limps, MP checks (posted blind OOP), CO raises to $25, Button calls, SB calls, HERO calls, UTG raises All In, MP folds, CO calls $143, Button calls $143, SB folds. HERO ??? If this was NL1k I'd chuck this without even thinking about it. But since I know CO to be a donk and that this is NL400 on Party I can't help but think that I could be ahead to everyone except UTG here. I'm just so confused about button's flat call twice here (both CO and button quickly called w/o even thinking about pushing which makes me think that they don't have QQ-AA but rather AK/AQ/JJ/99/88/even AJs). Wouldn't button or CO push with KK/AA with all that action? Like I said, frozen. Clearly calling is horrible unless it's for the sole intent to pull a Stop n Go but that option just don't fly here (or does it?). So it's push or fold I guess. Is there ANY way I push here? Math experts? |
#2
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Re: WTF do I do here? Frozen with 10 10
Gotta fold this
Pushing only gets called by a hand where you are a 4/1 dog (JJ, QQ, etc) The fact that UTG limp/pushed would scare me, absent anything else, as I see this a lot being just KK or AA. I feel you are worse than 4/1 to win here - plus you've got additional money to go into pot....not deep enough left to play for set value even if you got both of their stacks. Wait for a better spot |
#3
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Re: WTF do I do here? Frozen with 10 10
Definitely don't push. You have to chuck this one.
The absolute best you can hope for is 6 overcards, which I would put low on the scale of possible combined opponent ranges. One of your flat calls is extremely likely to be QQ or JJ (or even a poorly/weakly played KK - I DO have trouble giving the shortstack pusher credit for AA here), so I just can't see calling this given where stacks are and what you could possibly win if you catch your flop. I won't build up a quantitative analysis, but my thought process in these situations boils down to this: "What do I do on a ragged flop - say, 852 rainbow - if I call and I'm out of position in a big multi-way pot?" In this one, I can't see myself being able to lead strong enough with this hand on a likely air flop with comparatively short stacks left relative to the pot. Also, even though you're getting 4-1 on your call, that is not quite the right price when facing ONLY ONE overpair. Considering that additional overcards (or even additional overpairs) are further lowering your odds, this is a no-brainer. You're gonna see what two, and likely three, players are willing to stick a lot of their stack in with, so consider your $25 an information fee and wait until you feel the table out better. |
#4
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Re: WTF do I do here? Frozen with 10 10
The CO's raise/smooth call could very well be AA trying to build a sidepot. I don't know if that's wise, but when I see something like that, that's the first thing I think of, and I'm often right.
Even if it's not AA, you're facing at least one overpair here the large majority of the time. Also, even if you're guaranteed to stack one of your opponents when you hit your set (which you're not), you're still not getting your odds. Gotta fold. |
#5
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Re: WTF do I do here? Frozen with 10 10
Thanks for the replies. I folded.
FLOP: 10 3 2, turn 7, river 9 CO pushed the flop, Button folded. CO: 66 UTG: QQ GRRRRRRR. Yeah I guess most of the time I'm behind. I do like the "information fee" line...nice way to justify folding. |
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