33 hand where I am convinced I have a v. good read

[B Dids]

I get black 3s UTG at a Party 3/6 6 max table. I limp, which is probably ok for the table I'm at but I agree is debatable, but that's not what I want to discuss pretend I misclicked or something and move on.

Folded to the SB. He is a pretty straight foward, boring tight player who gives off that "full player new to 6 max vibe". Something like 20/10 and has seemed pretty uncreative so far. He completes

Laggish preflop and and generally lousy and passive post flop BB raises, we all call.

Flop:

2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB checks, BB checks, I bet. (anybody hate this, I bet feeling like I could fold to a c/r from the preflop raiser, but thinking that he was passive/bad enough that he is likely not being tricky and just being bad).

I get check raised by the SB. BB folds...

Now based on what I think of him, and my impressions of how he'd play, I don't think this is a a lone Ace or 8, or 88. It's never AA. The most likely hands I feel are flush draw v.v.v.v. often, and 22 on occasion. I don't want to debate this however, I just want to talk about how to play the hand with the understanding that he very likely has K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (I would have to explain too much of his play to say why I have this specific read, and why this isn't just a "putting them on something I can beat" situation, but I was pretty confident in this read.)

So, I call.

Turn 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Het bets, I call.

Here is where I start to question. If I realy believe that I'm likely best here, a raise seems correct, but then I feel that might be mitigated by the fact that my read is obviously not rock solid, and that while I think it's good enough that given a non-nasty river (no spade, no king) I have showdown value, I don't want to spend a lot of bets finding out.

River Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

He checks, I check.

I really feel like he's not calling with any hands I beat, so a check behind is best here.

[bdmcgraw]

Nice hand..but the way you described SB makes him not seem to be the type of player to check raise the flop with a flushdraw out of position. To me it seems much more likely for him to have a weak ace or an eight then he isn't sure is good. Either way, most reads are not 100% rocksolid and if you've seen him spew without much of a hand this is a fairly common call down

Do you fold the river if he bets and it's a spade?

[B Dids]

What part of?

[ QUOTE ]
I don't want to debate this however, I just want to talk about how to play the hand with the understanding that he very likely has Kx

[/ QUOTE ]

Was too complex? Every time somebody makes a post and wants people to ignore some aspect, the first post without fail will fial to do so.

I am obviously folding a spade river, given my belief in my read.

[beset7]

Before I reply dids I'm confused about something. If we aren't going to debate your read then what is there to discuss? Raise the turn. Check the river.

[tansoku]

Turn raise into a guy who chk-raised the flop and lead the turn would certainly look like a slowplayed set to him, or maybe he thinks you limped with A5...
He calls the raise with his flush draw, and folds to a river bet UI, yes?
So 18% of the time he improves and the raise costs you 1BB, 82% of the time you win an extra bet.

The fact that he's new to 6max, and straightforward, might mean he folds K5 on the river to a bet here the 10%(if I counted correctly) required to make it profitable.
I think he folds it more than that, and he doesn't see you play 33 this way (if that matters).

[me454555]

If your this confident in your read raise the turn and fold to a 3 bet. Check behind on the river.

I think your biggest mistake here is the flop bet. Even if you know sb has exactly 2 spades, hes still a 55:45 favorite against your 33. Given that when you bet you did not know what either of the 2 players had, I think it makes the flop bet a little worse

[B Dids]

Few thoughts

A- sorry for that response, I was in the middle of being frustrated trying to re-wire my stereo. Fat finger + little wires and small holes are not fun!

B- I guess part of the question here is that obviously I trust my read, but since we can't ever trust 100%, how should I play the turn, and I agree that raising and folding to a 3-bet is good.

C- I obviously didn't have the SB on spades before his c/r. Once the BB checked, basically he either had aces or a hand v. scared of the ace, and I think I've got a shot of winning the pot with a flop bet. If anybody called, I was done with the hand, but then the c/r just really made the SB's hand seem transparent t me.

[manpower]

Assuming your read is right the turn raise is obviously appropriate. However, whether or not I think it's the right play in the real world depends on whether you would call if he bets the river after a rag. If you're folding there, I think calling the turn is fine. If you're still calling though, you should probably raise the turn to charge his draw and buy the showdown, I'm guessing the chance of him threebetting his draw and folding you is close to 0.

This all depends on the strength of your read though, personally I just call the turn.

[manpower]

I thought about this for a few minutes and decided I was interested in seeing how often your read needs to be right for this turn raise to be equitable, so I ran the numbers.

Assuming your read is right 100% of the time, your raise has +.82bb of equity. Since your read won't be right that often we discount it against the ev when your wrong, which is -1.00bb. So how often does your read need to be accurate for this to be breakeven? A surprisingly low, 55%.

This is ONLY for the turn raise though. For your line on the entire hand to be right... well i didn't punch that out.

[me454555]

I think the biggest advantage to raising the turn is that you have a free showdown play and allow sb to define his hand.

If sb bets a non spade river, you have to call here so in essence you're preparing to put in 2 bbs on the turn and river. In addition, your hand is weak enough that you can fold to a 3bet on the turn and fold if your opponent calls the turn and then bets into you again on the river.