A7s final table

[betgo]

Paradise $250K, 9-handed final table, blinds 20K/40K/2K. Passed to me with 273K and A7s. Players to act 266K, CO 793K, button 55K, SB 75K, BB 57K. Other stacks 164K, 447K, and 220K. Prizes 51K, 28K, 19K, 15K, 12K, 10K, 7K, 5K, 3K. Push or fold?

[caseycjc]

You have to give some reads on the players here, particularly the CO who obviously can break you. If you think there's any chance of pushing it past him you have to make a move.

[betgo]

I pushed. Got called by the big stack in CO with 99 and the BB with 77. Picked up a flush draw on the turn, but the 9s held up, busting out two players. I had more chips, so got 8th for $5.2K. I probably could have post/folded to $10-12K, but that is not how I got to the final table.

I had been pushing a lot, so I don't know if I should second guess the one time it didn't work. I saw A7s in middle position with 6xBB and with some of the stacks left to act very short, and figured it was an autopush.

The problem with this play is the BB has to call. A short stack might fold to go around another orbit, but he gets blinded out by the SB next hand. The BB and other short stacks had been playing very tight, so I thought I had some FE. Getting heads up with pot odds against a random BB hand is very favorable, but not nearly as good as picking up the 100K blinds and antes. I think I would be better off stealing a big stack's blinds.

A7s is also easily dominated. If either of the two big stacks call me with A8 or 77 or better, I am usually a 7-3 dog with 3-2 or 4-3 pot odds. It is not that bad a gamble. If I had won this hand, I would have been the chip leader and proabably take one of the top two spots. The problem is that although the EV is not that bad if called by a big stack, there is not that much upside without much FE.

I think the play is marginal, but probably a fold. I would be better off stealing from a medium to big stack with a weaker but less easily dominated hand.

The chip leader who called was named "NoFearDave". He was from the other table, so I was not familiar with him, but he played true to name and undoubtably had accumulated his chips, as I had, through aggressive play against people afraid of busting out late in the tournament. However, he and the medium stack I covered still needed a real hand to call. Obviously I wouldn't mind if he called with a weak ace, a strong king, or a small pair.

[betgo]

Actually, thinking about this and doing the math, I probably made the right play. If I get called by a big stack and am a 7-3 dog, it is EV-80K. If I am called by the BB, I am probably ahead with pot odds, so it is EV+50K. The chance that either big stack has a hand that dominates mine is not that great. It is probably EV+ if I am called by one of the other short stacks. So overall it is probably EV+. Gambling for all my chips is probably slightly $EV- given the prize structure, but a win would probably have given me atleast $30K.

I think I probably played this right, but ran into the worst case scenario. When you keep pushing, eventually you will get caught, but the blinds are too big to play passively.

This is interesting to me as there were a lot of real $s involved. I hope I am not going on to long with it.