I think I hate turn raises

Kyriefurro · #1 08-27-2005, 12:49 PM

Villain is 28/11/5.0 after about 50 hands. His WSD is 30% - a touch low, but not enough to justify the 5.0 AF.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BB caps, Hero calls.

With villain's high aggression I was figuring him for almost ANY Q, hence the re-raise. Too much?

imported_CaseClosed326 · #2 08-27-2005, 12:52 PM

I would not trust someones AF aggression after only 50 hands. Have you seen him doing something crazy that would justify such a high AF aggression? If not, I would just call down the c/r.

MoDOH · #3 08-27-2005, 12:53 PM

it´s only 50 hands man... You are giving those stats way too much credit...

Kyriefurro · #4 08-27-2005, 01:01 PM

Every once in a while, as I travel down the road that is Life, I hear or read a statement that is like a bolt from the blue. It's usually something simple, but it fits my current situation perfectly and has a rather profound impact on my thinking. This has been even more true for poker.

You, my friend, have just offered me such a statement. As I've become better at interpretting what the stats mean, I've come to rely on them more and more for decisions, obviously too much so.

I think I just found a leak [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

uw_madtown · #5 08-27-2005, 01:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
it´s only 50 hands man... You are giving those stats way too much credit...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

People need to understand what stats converge when. For example, VPIP and PFR can be trusted fairly quickly. 100 hands is enough for them to start converging somewhat (SOMEWHAT!) accurately.

Agg factor is post-flop, so you must consider how many hands he's seen a flop in those 50 hands. Seriously, agg factor takes much longer to converge. Any statistic based on later streets takes longer to converge simply because players will see a far smaller percentage of rivers than they will turns, flops, and preflops. It would take a long time for a Folded to River Bet stat to converge, for example, because in 50 hands the player might only see 5-10 rivers -- compared to VPIP, which will converge closer and closer to an accurate statistic every hand.

sammy_g · #6 08-27-2005, 01:08 PM

I think you need to turn your HUD off.

Just call down. If he's bluffing, you collect more bets. If he's ahead, you lose less.