Three-Way Counterfeit River Value-Betting

W. Deranged · #1 08-27-2005, 02:28 PM

A'ight bros...

So I encountered this situation the other night in the Borgata 20/40 (which was a great success for me... ~60 hrs at about 1.1 BB/hr... I'm hoping that's some sweet convergence goin' on... [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img])

This was something I can't say I'd ever really thought about in a poker game... namely, is it correct to value bet very dirty counterfeit outs on the river.

After playing the hand, I modelled the hand for myself and basically came to the determination that a river value bet is completely value neutral here. But I want to see what y'all think.

Deranged is in EP with Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

There are two players of interest in said hand.

The MP player is a generic loose-weak 20/40 player. I don't remember all that much about his play except that he wasn't that good. Played too many hands and played them passively. Would pay off too much in general but not as bad as some others.

The LP player is a Jumbo Lump Maryland Crab Cake. He's the fishiest of the fishy. He's an erratic pre-flop raiser who then plays passively pre-flop, calling down with way too much crap and chasing longshot draws and missing tons of value bets. A raise on a big street almost certainly represents a hand that can beat one pair.

Pre-flop: Deranged raises, three limpers and the BB decide to join me for all the fun.

Flop: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB checks, Deranged bets, MP calls, one fold, Jumbo Lump calls, BB folds.

Turn: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Deranged bets, MP calls, Jumbo Lump raises, Deranged calls, MP calls.

At this point, I half-jokingly call to the dealer to "put up a deuce."

River: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Deranged ?

I hit a great card. In a heads-up pot, I think it's clear there is no value bet here. But given that there is a third player who will some percentage of the time will call with a worse hand (fwiw, I'm pretty confident I'm ahead of MP like 95% of the time here), I wonder whether I should instead bet-fold this river.

Thoughts?

I welcome comments on any of the rest but I think it's all pretty standard.

bugstud · #2 08-27-2005, 02:30 PM

yup I bet there, I might not even fold vs your player description.

KDawgCometh · #3 08-27-2005, 03:16 PM

i'd probably look to check call the river so that you can encourage the MP to overcall. I think you are good here, like alot, but being raised on this river by the jumbo shrimp would really really blow

Bodhi · #4 08-27-2005, 04:10 PM

Please estimate the size of the pot in your posts, even if it's a live game.

Anyway, I don't think a bet/fold line is a good idea, because Jumbo Lump might not even realize that his 97o is counterfeited and raise you anyway. Also, not taking this hand to showdown would make no sense at all.

Either bet-call or check-call.

Moneyline · #5 08-27-2005, 04:26 PM

I would bet here because none of your other options seems that great. One of your opponents could easily be on a draw here, so I think check/calling for overcalls is out. I think check/raising is bad because it will discourage MP from calling with an iffy hand, and it also puts you in trouble if you get reraised. Another problem with checking is that since you called for a deuce, the fish might check behind with a hand like nines up, figuring that the river card may have helped you.

By betting, you still stand to collect from both MP and the big fish if the hold marginal hands, and a reraise from the fish doesn't bother you that much because he could easily raise a hand like 96. There's also no chance that it will get checked around when you are best.

I think betting here has a positive expectation, and is the superior choice.

Just my opinion...

einbert · #6 08-27-2005, 04:28 PM

A checkraise would be good if it weren't for MP, and that a boat or straight will three-bet you about every time.

The pot is to big to fold for one more, and this guy could raise a lot of hands on the end that you beat. Plus if you bet and MP calls and LP raises, you can just call and MP will pay off the last bet as well. So bet/call seems easily superior to checking.