Is this a really easy value bet?

shant · #1 08-27-2005, 06:05 AM

Opponent is 24/11/2.5 over hundreds of hands.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: I am MP3 with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, I call, 2 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, I bet, SB calls, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: (3.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, I bet, SB calls.

River: (5.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, I want to make value bet posts like sfer and Jeff W one day...

jason_t · #2 08-27-2005, 06:25 AM

No, it's not easy. Good luck making it in the future.

Edit: However, scrub says it's easy.

Michael Davis · #3 08-27-2005, 06:28 AM

I don't see how this is an easy value bet at all. The river card is a pretty godawful one for our hand, so we're just banking on this guy having ace high when we have no reason to think he does? I think it's much more likely he was drawing to something that hit the river than that he'll call with an ace. Also note that the river makes it less likely we get paid off with an ace.

-Michael

jason_t · #4 08-27-2005, 06:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how this is an easy value bet at all. The river card is a pretty godawful one for our hand, so we're just banking on this guy having ace high when we have no reason to think he does? I think it's much more likely he was drawing to something that hit the river than that he'll call with an ace. Also note that the river makes it less likely we get paid off with an ace.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that it's easy at all but I think that we get paid off by a 5 or A high often enough to make betting here profitable.

It does look like SB was on a draw, most likely a gutshot that likely paired up at some point but he will call with worse hands and it's an easy fold to a river raise.

Michael Davis · #5 08-27-2005, 06:40 AM

ohohoh

I read the flop as 755. My bad. I agree with scrub.

-Michael

scrub · #6 08-27-2005, 06:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
ohohoh

I read the flop as 755. My bad. I agree with scrub.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

Owned!

scrub

Also, I think you rule.

Michael Davis · #7 08-27-2005, 06:59 AM

"Also, I think you rule."

What do I get for this? Do you have hot friends? Do you have a long-haired wig?

-Michael

Jake (The Snake) · #8 08-27-2005, 07:52 AM

Although I think I would probably bet if I was at the table, a thought just came to my mind.

This guy has TAGish stats, so it seems like he might be capable of competent hand-reading and making good plays. I think it sort of matters a lot here. It leaves me with a lot of questions from villain's point of view.

What does he think of Hero's hand? What range would you put hero on if you were villain and, what range of hands might you play this way as villain so far? If he has a five, why didn't he c/r the flop?

I don't think it's necessarily correct to give villain credit as a good player here, nor am I sure if betting or checking is correct.