the good news and bad news

stupidsucker · #1 08-24-2005, 02:47 AM

I didnt even realize that my ITM over the last 305 sngs I had is 38%.. not bad but...

31/30/<font color="red">55</font>
5.81% roi

Now to go through some HHs and see if I am missing too many bubble pushes or if I am playing too weak ITM or if its just variance... /sigh

I still see this as great news in my games rebuilding.. It is hard to play stressed out, but I can't not play. Feels good to see that my ITM is fine.

johnny005 · #2 08-24-2005, 03:11 AM

dont feel bad I'm 3.7% over the last 199
24/21/22
I'm a 20% roi player even with these included in my last 1500 games. But does it ever start to feel bad when your busting almost every tourney! I feel your pain

Gramps · #3 08-24-2005, 04:00 AM

Your finish distribution is a classic sign of playing not to lose. I had one prolonged bad stretch in the SNGs the first couple of months I played them, went back through my finsih distribution and was shocked at how many 3rds I had - I'd been afraid that my problem was playing too recklessly late (from bubbble on), but it was exactly the opposite. My response to my first of the inevitable ugly suckout streaks was to react by thinking, "gee, if I just wasn't so reckless on the bubble, I could have gotten into the money a number of more times and wouldn't have had this big buy-in drop," etc. Well...the reality is that most of the time you don't have ugly suckout streaks, and the properly turned up aggression late ups your $EV - even if you run into hands now and then.

Armed with that knowledge, I adjusted my aggression back up in the appropriate spots, and got back on track. Sh-t happens, play to max your $EV and it don't matter how often the suckouts come (cause you're going to do better). Same thing happend to me when I first started playing to eat at $5/10 6-max. I had my first bad downswing, got too passive, and had a prolonged downswing. My aggression stats got ugly-passive, I adjusted it back up to the appropriate levels, and was much better off after that.

pearljam · #4 08-24-2005, 04:05 AM

after reading your posts I get the impression that your at best a marginally winning player, perhaps your true ROI at the 50+5s is around 5%? This really isnt that bad, if you get good rakeback you can make a living off that.

Annulus · #5 08-24-2005, 04:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
after reading your posts I get the impression that your at best a marginally winning player, perhaps your true ROI at the 50+5s is around 5%? This really isnt that bad, if you get good rakeback you can make a living off that.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, thats kinda of harsh.

Mr_J · #6 08-24-2005, 04:48 AM

I'm pretty sure he was better than most $33ers a while ago, ie better than most low limit players posting here (a few knocked him in another thread). What's happened sucker??

bennies · #7 08-24-2005, 05:16 AM

You know this better than me... the sample size is small, possibly one can detect a pattern from this but I'm not sure.

stupidsucker · #8 08-24-2005, 10:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
after reading your posts I get the impression that your at best a marginally winning player, perhaps your true ROI at the 50+5s is around 5%? This really isnt that bad, if you get good rakeback you can make a living off that.

[/ QUOTE ]

all 1500+ of them? Or just my tilty posts since the end of may? Wow to narrow my roi down to 5% based on some posts is pretty impressive. Did you read my posts about 10+1 hands or 55s? Can you clue me in on your thought process or did you pick 5% out of the air? Maybe you could point out the post(s) you are talking about.

I admit 100% that my poker brain has been out of whack. My belief is that I did suffer some big variance at a bad time, it got me tilty, and now I am just making more mistakes.

Gramps thanks. That was exacly my thoughts. Like I mentioned. I thought I was missing pushes on the bubble and ITM. Lately I have been bouncing back and forth though. Making some extra loose pushes and passing on some pushes I think may be slightly EV in order to gain passage ITM.

My game is getting back on track, but every time I suffer a domination loss I feel like it is the end of the world. My brain is on auto defense. I would love to just have one of those days where the cards fall in my favor. I haven't had since I can't remember.

Every day I feel more on track. Thanks to those of you with constructive criticism. 2+2 posters come and go. Dealing with pride and variance are what make most winning poker players quit. I won't deny thinking it at times.