Tough Decision with TT Facing a Re-raise and Caller

[Lloyd]

Party $109 $18K Guaranteed
About 60 people left (40 pay)
Blinds 150/300 and going up to 200/400 very soon.
I have T5375, about average. Both villains have me covered (14600 and 8200, respectively) and have been fairly TAG with nothing out of line or unusual. I've been playing TAG with blind steals as appropriate.

I have TT UTG and raise to T800 (my normal raise at this level). Folded to CO who makes it T2500. Button calls and the blinds fold.

There is T6250 in the pot and T1700 to call. Re-raising will certainly get called by the CO (and the button if trapping).

What to do?

[Pat Southern]

Easy fold, if they're both willing to go against your UTG raise then you're pretty certainly beat.

[Lloyd]

I definitely don't think it's an easy fold. I would estimate I'm no worse then a 2.5 to 1 dog.

[caseycjc]

I don't think it's an easy fold either; I do think it's a smart fold. I do not want to go up against two players here, I look for a better spot. Odds are great but if you do call you are basically pot committed, so the question becomes do I want to push all in; tough spot to risk it all.

[adanthar]

Nah, for half your stack I think it's pretty easy (the first time around, since you don't know if CO does this with AK).

Fold. Easy call in a cash game, but in a tourny you have to consider your stack here.

[johnnybeef]

Given your reads, and the probable range of hands you are up against, I'd estimate you are at 25% to win the pot (thats a pretty optimistic estimate by the way). Given your implied odds (which looks like about 4:1) a push is +ev in and of itself. Even if my estimate is off and you are around the 20 % range, this is definately a spot in which you may be taking a bit the worst of it in order to destroy the bubble which as we all know is VERY +EV due to the payout structure.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think it's an easy fold either; I do think it's a smart fold. I do not want to go up against two players here, I look for a better spot. Odds are great but if you do call you are basically pot committed, so the question becomes do I want to push all in; tough spot to risk it all.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are missing the point here, Lloyd I'm assuming plays for first here. He has 800 invested already meaning that his stack is at 4500. If his reads are correct, then he will be betting 4500 to win three times his original stack which is 4500:1900 or about 4:1. Given the fact that his estimation that he was no worse than a 2.5:1 dog, a push is definately +EV in and of itself. When you consider that Having a big stack on a quickly approaching bubble is Highly +$EV, this is a no brainer push imo.

[ekky]

[ QUOTE ]
If his reads are correct, then he will be betting 4500 to win three times his original stack which is 4500:1900 or about 4:1

[/ QUOTE ]

this makes no sense.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If his reads are correct, then he will be betting 4500 to win three times his original stack which is 4500:1900 or about 4:1

[/ QUOTE ]

this makes no sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are right, it was a typo. i meant 4500:19000. the way i got this was based upon his read that neither of the players were going anywhere if he pushes. since both have him covered, he would stand to triple up his original stack (5300*3+ 450 = ~19000). the 4500 is oobviously his remaining stack which is what he would be pushing.