AA Hand, late in a Qualifier Tourney

[justT]

$10 PP Qualifier, 390 entrants, top 16 qualify (i.e. flat payout 1-16, 17-19 get token amount), 30 players remain

My stack is just above average (14K vs 13K average). There are 7 larger stacks and 22 smaller stacks. I’m close to the point where I can fold to the money, but I think I’m a few K short. My model (read “best guess”) in this situation is that half the shorter stacks will bust out before I’m blinded out. If I shutdown here, I figure I’d finish in roughly 19th place (actually this is ITM as 17-19 get a token amount). The model seems to work pretty well, but I don’t play it hard and fast, I adjust to the situation, especially as it gets closer to the bubble. I figure I still have to play, but picking up the blinds a couple of times may be enough.

I have reads on some of the players, but short stack desperation is driving most of the play. Villain called a 2X raise with ATs in BB three rounds ago, and pushed with QQ the last time he was in BB. On the surface it looks like he’s defending his BB, but in both cases he was short. Villain is in better shape on this hand, he’s not as desperate, but he needs to play to make the $.

Blind 400/800

Seat 2: ( $14160 ) UTG <---Hero
Seat 3: ( $12192 ) UTG+1
Seat 4: ( $7180 ) …
Seat 5: ( $41889 )
Seat 6: ( $14896 )
Seat 7: ( $10080 )
Seat 8: ( $2626 )
Seat 9: ( $9153 )
Seat 10: ( $17381 ) SB
Seat 1: ( $9178 ) BB <-- Villain

Dealt to Hero [ Ad As ]

Hero raises [3600]

I wanted to win the blinds without confrontation as that would put me in very good shape to make the $. I wanted my raise to say “I have AA, don’t mess with me” and felt this amount said it better than an all-in.

8 folds, Villain calls [2800]

** Dealing Flop ** [ 8d, Ks, Jd ]

Villain min bets [800] <-- is this the key to this hand? What is he thinking here?

Now I REALLY want Villain to fold. If I win it here, I’m in great shape to make the $. At this point I really don’t care about the rest of his chips; the biggest value for me is the current pot. I’m not interested in giving him bad odds to draw, I want him gone, so…

Hero raises all-in
Villain calls with QQ and hits Q to win
Hero’s crippled and ends up busting out a few hands later in 26th place.

Was there a better way to bet this hand? Play it faster, allin pre-flop? Smaller pre-flop, more FE on flop bet? His actions don’t seem consistent with someone who’s ready to go all the way with his QQ (other than the fact that he called my all-in bet). He could have pushed pre-flop or flop and chose not to, in both cases there was decent FE and the pot was significant to his stack. What's up with his min bet on the flop?

[djg40]

It's a bad beat. If you are second-guessing your play when you get the money in as a huge favorite, you need to examine your game. This is just a bad beat.

You played it right.

It IS a bad beat. His min-raise on the flop is the classic scared online player who has a big hand but is frightened of the king.