KQ - AKx flop

#1 08-18-2005, 02:40 PM

In marginal postflop hands like this, I'm clueless.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB folds.

River: (6.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

brettbrettr · #2 08-18-2005, 02:41 PM

Read? Eh, I'd probably bet-fold the river.

peterchi · #3 08-18-2005, 02:46 PM

I kinda want to raise or fold on the flop, I think.

Nick C · #4 08-18-2005, 04:29 PM

This is a difficult hand, especially against unknowns.

BB's flop bet is awkward to face. He could be firing with a flush draw, worse second pair, a pocket pair he's testing out, or even a gutshot. And, of course, he could have an ace. But I don't think we should assume you're behind.

Just calling allows Button to chase cheaply with, say, QT, if he happens to have that or to chase his kicker if he has a worse king. But, really, if he's got a worse hand he'll fold to a raise, he's probably not really that big of a threat. (Driving him off of a better hand would be great, so long as BB doesn't have you beat anyway, but I'm not too optimistic about our ability to do that.) And the pot's not all that big, and BB may have you beat anyway. If you're drawing, it's possible you'd prefer Button to stay in, although if he has JT, for instance, you'd rather drive him out, if you can, and pick up 3 outs.

Ugh. I think the call is all right, but it's a difficult spot.

All right, so Button didn't raise the flop, which is a relief, but at the same time he didn't fold, which is a concern. In any event, though, I think your turn bet is good. Button's call may mean a weak ace or a flush draw or a gutshot or even a pocket pair he's being optimistic with. Also, it could mean a worse or equal king.

Heads-up on the river, out of position, you're in a tough spot. If you check, Button may check behind with a hand that beats you like a weak ace, but I wouldn't count on it. He also might bluff a busted gutshot, but I wouldn't count on that either.

Versus a hand like KT, I think you want to bet here, as Button will most likely call with that, at this point, but may not bet it himself. However, if he happens to be a player who might bluff-raise the scare card with a worse made hand, then that's a danger, since it's hard to call a raise here without a read on Button as an aggressive river raiser. I do, however, think a raise would be a little suspicious, since Button has shown no strength up until now, and unless he's a loose preflop cold-caller, there aren't that many flush draws he could have had that wouldn't have given him a big draw on the flop (or a flush draw plus top pair). Still, we can't rule out a hand like A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or A9 or K9 or even 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], and I think if you get raised, chances are the raise means you're beat.

Against an unknown, I would probably check-call or bet-fold, depending on my mood. I don't think it's an easy decision.

#5 08-18-2005, 04:56 PM

Great analysis! Unfortunately I didn't know either of them, so I was playing in the dark.

Button had Ah 4s of course.

peterchi · #6 08-18-2005, 04:59 PM

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Button had Ah 4s of course.

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easy buddy-list.