K9 vs a taggish player.

Trix · #1 08-17-2005, 03:56 AM

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 3 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

River: (7.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

He has pretty TAG stats, but aside from that I dont know really.

The flop call look a bit slim looking at it now..

Vaftrudner · #2 08-17-2005, 04:46 AM

The flop call look a bit slim looking at it now.

It is, but what was your intentions? /v

spydog · #3 08-17-2005, 06:20 AM

Folding the flop is mandatory, it completely missed you. However, by folding this flop you'll probably need to make some adjustments or leave this table because a smart villian will try to exploit you with this play on future hands. The river fold is tough. I might fold this if the Th was the river card, but I hate folding top pair HU in a blind steal situation when I'm getting 10:1.

Trix · #4 08-17-2005, 02:06 PM

I guess thought my cards were live very often, that I may even have the best hand sometimes and also that I may be able to steal it on the turn. If he has something hopeless and was betting just to see if I would fold, then he may check-fold the turn. If and ace comes, then I may have a bluffraise, which may turn out to be a valueraise if he was betting the flop with an openended or a flushdraw.

stir · #5 08-17-2005, 02:16 PM

Even HU, calling a river c/r with nothing more than TP medium kick i think is negative EV. I don't think you will win vs. this checkraise situation 1 out of 10, particularly vs a TAG

7ontheline · #6 08-17-2005, 02:18 PM

I dunno, that's a lot of wishful thinking regarding his hand ranges. You technically don't even have odds to peel one on the flop even if he has an underpair to both your cards, although implied odds help. Add the possibility that you may be drawing dead or very slim and that he likely has redraws on you and I think you must fold the flop. Yes, he could be bluffing or betting a draw - but draws hit sometimes and you have a K-high hand in a small pot.

StellarWind · #7 08-17-2005, 03:50 PM

If you fold this flop then you are folding much too often. Villain is getting 4.5-1 to bluff this flop. You cannot go around giving up 1/3 to 1/2 of your hands when you have position against two semi-random cards. Remember, if he had a real hand he would probably 3-bet preflop or checkraise you.

The proper strategy to counter this donkbet is to float most of your semidecent hands like this one. You have reasonable chances to improve your hand and some implied odds. You also need to just call with most good hands. Only the real turkeys go in the muck.

Notice that the position is exactly the same as if Villain checkcalled your flop autobet. Villain hasn't accomplished anything by betting that wasn't going to be handed to him on a silver platter anyway and he has almost no information about your hand. Now he must make a choice:

1. Continue his bluff on the turn. Now your floaters need to fold but your good hands get to ambush him. As long as your floaters had a few outs, he loses much more by continuing unsuccessful bluffs and semibluffs onto the turn then he gains by collected an extra SB from floaters.

2. Abandon his bluffs and semibluffs. Now your floaters spring to life and you pick up a lot of pots you would have given up on. His donking strategy is negated and it is as if the play went flop check-call, turn check to you. But you still gain an advantage because you saved a bet by folding useless hands like T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on the flop. If he had actually checked the flop he would have collected a bluff continuation bet on the flop. His flop bet warned you that he likes his hand too much to fold so you save your money.

Another major aspect of this strategy is you get to see the turn card before you make any commitments. On the actual deal you get to reclassify your hand from floater to made hand and collect on the turn raise. There will be other made hands where the turn hurts you and you're glad you didn't raise the flop.

Probably the river ten is a second pair for him (KT, QT, T7) but your hand is pretty good to fold without a specific read. I would call.

7ontheline · #8 08-17-2005, 08:35 PM

Stellar, your analysis is good but this illustrates the problem with posts without reads. Taken in a vaccuum, arguments can be made for folding or peeling here. You say this guy is TAGish, but that can mean anything. Does he donk with nothing, trying to buy it? Does it mean he's at least got a pair or good draw? Has he been donking you regularly when you try to steal his blind? If you just sat down, maybe you drop it because why fight over a small pot and then you play back at him next time. Or maybe you try to muscle him out so next time he'll pay off your real hand.

StellarWind · #9 08-17-2005, 10:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Stellar, your analysis is good but this illustrates the problem with posts without reads. Taken in a vaccuum, arguments can be made for folding or peeling here. You say this guy is TAGish, but that can mean anything. Does he donk with nothing, trying to buy it? Does it mean he's at least got a pair or good draw? Has he been donking you regularly when you try to steal his blind? If you just sat down, maybe you drop it because why fight over a small pot and then you play back at him next time. Or maybe you try to muscle him out so next time he'll pay off your real hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
I have to work with what they give me [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img].

If I had a sharp read I could put him on a range of hands and tailor my strategy accordingly. But the general read given is pretty typical of big-site online play.

A good idea when you don't know exactly how your opponent plays is to do something that's mathematically (game theory) reasonable. That way you can't go too far wrong. Raising is mathematically bad because you put two bets in with a weak hand. Folding is mathematically bad because it is strongly exploitable by a strategy of always betting. But there is no good way of exploiting a strategy of calling most donk bets. Because of that it's guarenteed to work decently against all players.