Ever experience this? [Includes hand examples]

[Oluwafemi]

tonight, i just had my 2nd biggest drop in buy-ins, 11 [my previous was 12]. one thing i've noticed in the past 2 months playing SNGs is that i never seem to break out and explode. i get to a certain point, then i experience unreal bad luck. say i cash in 2 out of 4 with a 1st and 2nd playing my usual tight aggressive poker. i'll then go 0 for 6 playing the same game but lose to all types of weird crap like a bunch of river beats to the worse hand. then i might go 3 for 6 with the same game with a three 3rds, losing to the same types of crazy beats. it's been up, then down a bit, then down some more, then down some more, then up, then down, then down some more, then up, then up, then down again.

it's getting to a point where the cashes cannot sustain and make up for the ones i lose. it's like, you know you're a good enough player for the level you play at, but your advancement is stumped [as well as your bankroll] because you can't move foward because of the loses. let me give you an example. in my last 12 SNGs, i'm 7 for 12 with one 1st, one 2nd, and five 3rds. i caught a bunch of bad beats in that stretch [hence the 3rds] but was thankful i was'nt worse. but tonight, i go 0 for 11 [no cashes] with about three of them in 4th. the key are the hands.

1. A K vs A Q: TPTK gets crushed by Queens over Aces full
2. Q Q vs A A: against shortstack [had covered] but i was shortstacked after the hand.
3. go 0-3 all-in with 9 9 as shortstack.
4. J J vs 10 10 on the flop, lose to flush on the river.
5. A J vs A Q: major chip loss because of Kicker, out on next hand as shortstack with K J.
6. 4-handed: A 9 vs 9 6 on all-in on the flop- three of a kind 9s [Ace kicker], guy calls and catches 6 on river for 9s over 6s.
7. J 2 vs A K as shortstack all-in on the flop w/ Jacks. guys calls w/ A K [no flush or straight draw, no pair] and catches King on turn.

now, i'm not whining about the bad beats. i already took it out on the swivel chair [thank GOD not my monitor]. my issue was EVERYTIME i was in those situations, it felt as if it was [setup] to be that way. i don't mean setup like RIGGED, but when you lose the way i lose in the same situations so many times over and over, things run through your head like:

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i finally made it back from the shortstack [350] after having my Aces cracked by trip 9s on the river. AKs, great! got two callers, flop A 2 7, two of my suit on the flop, 1300 pot. i have 1150 and bet all-in and am called by 2 2 and bust with no help on river.

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"i haven't had a playable hand in i don't know how long and have seen my stack erode. now i got J J, hmmmm. ok, i guy raised in front of me, folded to me, i'll just call with position and play the flop. gut bets all-in on a flop of a low cards, i call, he has 10 10 with one heart [two the the flop]. two more hearts are dealt for the flush on ther river. [Olu wrinkles an "as usual" through his face]

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"ok, time to regroup. dealt A A, first hand of another table. bunch of limpers, i raise 85% of pot, one caller. flop comes two diamonds and an offsuit x card- i have position. caller bets very small amount in relation to pot and i reraise the pot and guy calls. another diamond falls on turn [here we go again]. end result, half my stack gone with A A to a King high flush on turn. [famous Olu "as usual" smirk]. oh well, at least i did'nt go all-in".

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ok, i'm the shortstack with about 850 but the blinds are still low at 10/20. i'm dealt 10 9o facing a mini-raise to 40, only one other caller and i'm in the BB. i call and the flop comes 8 7 6 with two spades. original raiser bets, original caller reraises! hmmmmmm. no need to play around Olu, you have the straight on the flop. of course i reraise but to my surprise, i find myself in a reraise war until we're all-in on the flop. LIFE IS SWEET!

[/ QUOTE ] original raiser [chipleader turns up A 7, other player 10 8, lovely. turn and river are spades, original raiser has Ace [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and wins flush on river". [Olu scratches his head, rubs his goatee, and stares at the monitor] "guess it just had to happen that way and no other way".

now multiply this several times over and that's how a typical day of SNGs for me goes. i have'nt been able to sustain any good stretches the last 3 months precisely because of these scenarios. i hear people say, "you always forget about the times you got lucky on the river". then i think, one river catch for me for every 15 catches for everyone else. it does'nt add up and that one catch does'nt make up for what you lost against the 15 to you. anybody ever experience this? like for every good thing that happens, you get overwhelmed by 7 bad things and it makes it that much harder to bounce back.

[Lori]

You sound like you might be playing out of your bankroll level. A 12 buyin downswing is not just common, it's almost routine and it should have very little impact on you.

In fact any downswing SHOULD have very little impact on you but I think you'll discover that most people here begin to get the twitches at approaching 20 buyin downswing.

If it helps, everything you are describing is perfectly normal and we've all been there.

Lori

[Oluwafemi]

[ QUOTE ]
You sound like you might be playing out of your bankroll level. A 12 buyin downswing is not just common, it's almost routine and it should have very little impact on you.

In fact any downswing SHOULD have very little impact on you but I think you'll discover that most people here begin to get the twitches at approaching 20 buyin downswing.

If it helps, everything you are describing is perfectly normal and we've all been there.

Lori

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actually, it's not the buy-in drop that bothers me. it's the numerous situations in which i'm losing. it's like they all seem to come up the same way: "just my luck, as soon as i get K K, i get busted by trip 5s and go out in 6th place. funny how this does'nt happen when i'm HU for the win".

let me put it another way: "it just had to happen on this hand, at this moment, in this way, and no other way, against that holding". now multiple that many times fold over a long stretch. then have those be losses. then there be not enough good fortune to overcome and make up for those losses.

[lorinda]

Seriously though, how else are these people going to prevent you from winning.

These bad runs for other forumites don't occur because we're suddenly losing with K4o to AA, they occur because there are periods of luck where you just couldn't win if you were dealt two jokers against two old-maid cards.

It's absolutely soul destroying when it first happens to you, but it won't be the last time it happens.

Irieguy made a famous post (Which sadly I'm a little too lazy to dig up right now) which basically had the great line that recommends you enjoy being temporarily telepathic "Look, the river will be the four of hearts...", because all too soon you'll be winning money again [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Lori

[Oluwafemi]

[ QUOTE ]
Seriously though, how else are these people going to prevent you from winning.

These bad runs for other forumites don't occur because we're suddenly losing with K4o to AA, they occur because there are periods of luck where you just couldn't win if you were dealt two jokers against two old-maid cards.

It's absolutely soul destroying when it first happens to you, but it won't be the last time it happens.

Irieguy made a famous post (Which sadly I'm a little too lazy to dig up right now) which basically had the great line that recommends you enjoy being temporarily telepathic "Look, the river will be the four of hearts...", because all too soon you'll be winning money again [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Lori

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that has'nt happened to me. oddly enough, even when i'm back winning money playing the same game i've always played, i'm ultimately making back the money i lost from my bad run. example: 100x buy-in for level

lose 12 buy-ins, make back 7, lose 2 buy-ins, make back 6, perform breakeven for 10, lose 5 buy-ins, make back 5 buy-ins, breakeven for 4, lose 7 buy-ins, make back 6, etc.

now multiply this times several hundred SNGs over a three month period. during this same period, have your "luck" ratio lean to the negative, say 1 luck for every 5 bad luck. now the one good luck does'nt make up for the five bad. so, you played good poker in all 6 but still got 5 bad. now multiple that over several hundred SNGs. like 100 for 500, where your power hands held up in the 100 [barely] and your power hands got demolished in the 500. it does'nt matter how many buy-ins you have. when the only thing you can look to wrong is an unbalanced amount of loses to the inferior hand in both your cashes [i.e more 2nds and 3rds than 1st to the same situations, result -ROI] and OOTMs, you cannot move foward.

[45suited]

I guess I'm not really understanding the point that you're trying to make.

The bottom line is this: Over the long run, everyone has the same amount of good hands and bad hands. Everyone has the same amount of good luck and bad luck.

The best players put themselves into good situations and avoid the bad ones.

There is one other thing to consider. One thing that I have noticed after going over HHs from some other players (who are struggling to maintain a +ROI) is that they often get involved in pots (and put themselves in jeopardy) when the tournament situation does not dictate that they need to.

I remember reading a TJ Cloutier book where he said that he can succeed in any form of poker in a tournament because first and foremost, he's playing his tournament strategy as opposed to just poker. Often I see players who seem oblivious of the big picture and they happen into bad beats in pots that I would not have even been playing due to tournament considerations.

Just something you might want to go back and consider when reviewing some of your HHs. How many spots were you hurt badly in pots that you did not even need?

[tshort]

If over time everyone else sucks out on me 15 times more than I suck out on them, I will be happy as [censored]. That means I get my money in with the best of it 15 times more often then I get the crap end.

After you put your money in the pot, there is no reason to get mad about what cards fall. The last time I took a slide (10 buy-ins), I stopped playing, reviewed a lot of hand histories from when I was churning out a high ROI and compared it to my "cold streak" play. I found I was generally playing solid, but if my "very solid" play was a 10, my "cold streak" play was about an 8. Altough I should have still churned an okay ROI, coupled with bad beats I was down. I reviewed my strategy, cleared my mind, and soon enough my bankroll was moving up again.

As for you being down, sorry man, good luck in the future.

[runner4life7]

I think the biggest thing you are failing to see here is the reason you arent sucking out as much as you are gettin sucked out on is because you should be going in with better hand more often than not. Therefore the opponent has more chances to suckout than you do on them, which is GOOD.

[GrekeHaus]

[ QUOTE ]
tonight, i just had my 2nd biggest drop in buy-ins, 11 [my previous was 12].

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Wow...12 buy-ins.

That's rough man, real rough. I can't even imagine...

[bluefeet]

[ QUOTE ]
Seriously though, how else are these people going to prevent you from winning.

These bad runs for other forumites don't occur because we're suddenly losing with K4o to AA, they occur because there are periods of luck where you just couldn't win if you were dealt two jokers against two old-maid cards.

It's absolutely soul destroying when it first happens to you, but it won't be the last time it happens.

Irieguy made a famous post (Which sadly I'm a little too lazy to dig up right now) which basically had the great line that recommends you enjoy being temporarily telepathic "Look, the river will be the four of hearts...", because all too soon you'll be winning money again [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Lori

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...should be stickied. superb lori.