dumb play or enough outs to go for it?

[2Fast2Furious]

No-Limit Hold'em home game, $6 BB (5 handed)
SB (Hero) (~$75)
BB ~ $125


short handed home game - loose game in general - villain is probably best player at table and aggressive. my image is pretty tight.

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 folds, Hero completes; BB raises $10; hero calls $10

Flop: ($32) 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Hero bets $10 BB calls

Flush draw scared me but my set looks good so far.

Turn: ($52) A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)


Uh-oh. I check thinking he has hit flush but I've got 10 outs so 20% chance of getting the boat on the river. BB bets $20 - I call. Was thinking it was a flush draw for him but I was either way ahead or way behind the flush with a decent amount of outs.

River ($92) 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Hero checks, BB bets $20; Hero Calls. Final pot $132.

His turn bet felt like he'd hit the flush and was trying to suck some money out of me but I couldn't get away from my set even with overcards and flush draws all over the place. I called his $20 bet on river too and he showed K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for the nut flush. Was I an idiot for getting sucked into this mess or was it worth being an essential 4-1 dog on the river for the implied 6-1 pot odds? (and is my math right here?) Guy had been aggressive and I really wanted to see what he had and if he was bluffing. FYI, the small betting sizes are just the way this home game has morphed over the past few weeks as we're mostly novices and people generally don't push.

The more I think about it I should have bet a lot more on the flop to push out his flush draw but with 2 kings he's probably not going anywhere anyway.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
No-Limit Hold'em home game, $6 BB (5 handed)
SB (Hero) (~$75)
BB ~ $125


short handed home game - loose game in general - villain is probably best player at table and aggressive. my image is pretty tight.

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 folds, Hero completes; BB raises $10; hero calls $10

Flop: ($32) 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Hero bets $10 BB calls

Flush draw scared me but my set looks good so far.

Turn: ($52) A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)


Uh-oh. I check thinking he has hit flush but I've got 10 outs so 20% chance of getting the boat on the river. BB bets $20 - I call. Was thinking it was a flush draw for him but I was either way ahead or way behind the flush with a decent amount of outs.

River ($92) 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Hero checks, BB bets $20; Hero Calls. Final pot $132.

His turn bet felt like he'd hit the flush and was trying to suck some money out of me but I couldn't get away from my set even with overcards and flush draws all over the place. I called his $20 bet on river too and he showed K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for the nut flush. Was I an idiot for getting sucked into this mess or was it worth being an essential 4-1 dog on the river for the implied 6-1 pot odds? (and is my math right here?) Guy had been aggressive and I really wanted to see what he had and if he was bluffing. FYI, the small betting sizes are just the way this home game has morphed over the past few weeks as we're mostly novices and people generally don't push.

The more I think about it I should have bet a lot more on the flop to push out his flush draw but with 2 kings he's probably not going anywhere anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why the preflop call and no raise?

Why on earth are you betting $10 into a $32 pot on the flop. You aren't even pricing out 1 heart undercard. Poor bet.

On the turn, you need 3.7:1 to draw at your boat. You had to pay $20 to win $72, so you were almost there without even considering implied odds. Good call.

On the river, you have no "implied" odds on a call, but you do have pot odds of just over 5.5:1. I probably fold as I can't see any hands villain value bet here that I can beat, but I don't fault your call at all.

[Nathan183]

First of all, this game is a crap shoot if you're playing with 10-20 BB. Why is the BB so high?

What's up with the tiny flop bet? Like you said, your set is almost certainly good, and you're scared of a flush. Bet the pot. With such a short stack, you could probably just push, because you're not folding to a raise.

[kevkev60614]

As has been noted, your flop bet was weak. I would've bet $25.

The odds aren't there for your turn call, but the massive implied odds more than compensate. Good call.

I probably would've folded the river, but it wasn't crazy stupid to call.

[Macedon]

For what it is worth, Ive been in this situation more times then I care to remember. I have a set on a three flush flop and my opponent has a nut-flush draw, or very close to a nut flush draw, and an over-pair.

You hit that full house 37% (1.6:1) of the time with two cards to come, and 22% (3.6:1) of the time with one card to come. Those are decent odds.

The problem is that you have to be the aggressor with these hands so as to chase the drawing opponents out of the pot. In my experience that is REALLY difficult when facing someone holding an over-pair. For one, they don't put you on a set---the better hand. Secondly, they think that even if YOU have a flush (which you don't), they have a draw to a better flush.

So you can rarely chase them out by betting, and you have only mediocre odds of improving. What do you do?

After showing flop aggression and being called, i would use a check-call strategy on the turn when the fourth flush card lands (like you did here), but only if the bet is a bit less than the pot. The implied odds against a loose-aggressive player---if you make your full house/quads--- make up for the difference between your pot odds and drawing odds. [Against a tight player, i'm dropping this]

On the river, good call.

[2Fast2Furious]

thanks - good advice and in retrospect I should've made at least a pot-sized bet on the flop to find out where I was and also price guys out (but with 9 outs you've got like a 35% chance to hit the flush so I wasn't sure I could do it). I'd seen this guy bluff and go to the river with hands like TPTK and worse so I thought there was a decent chance he was bluffing or semi-bluffing and was real suprised when he turned over KK. For a minuted I thought I'd won but then saw one of 'em was the King of Hearts.

FYI, I came back a bit later and pushed all-in against this same guy for like $60 when I was shortstacked with A-Q - he called with A-6 and beat me with a 6 on the river ughhhhhh

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
No-Limit Hold'em home game, $6 BB (5 handed)
SB (Hero) (~$75)
BB ~ $125


[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

why on earth would you play 3/6 NLHE with $100 stacks? just play 0.5/1 or 1/2?

[2Fast2Furious]

good question and I agree - problem is guys get anxious and want to play again before they have to go home to their wives at midnight (home game!) so blinds start rapidly increasing as the body count mounts and you can't just sit back and wait for good hands! (we start with $1/$2 blinds and it doubles every round!!)

I would have bet 30 on the flop. On the turn, youre in a bad situation, because he is betting 20 at a 52 pot, you dont have clear odds to call, but if you figure he is really strong, then you may have implied odds to hit the boat. This whole mess could be avoided if you bet the pot on the flop. A good player would be forced to fold.

[2Fast2Furious]

I hear you but kinda disagree about that last point...I mean with top pair with flush draw isn't a pot-sized bet still going to be called???