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#1
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i started playing the 109's and losing. went down to the 33's for confidence building, but my perception was that i was winning less than i normally do.
went back to the 109's, but kept bleeding $. so i decide to import results to see how badly i'm playing. 56 33's 43% ITM 41% ROI [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img] Holy... I thought i had about 10% ROI. Now i'm feeling better. My only explanation about how my perception can be so off (by 30% ROI) from the actual results is that my bankroll isnt growing much, thus i think i'm not doing that well. i also thought i was doing alot worse than i actually am at the 109's. I guess I dont give enough credit to those 1st place finishes. |
#2
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56 isn't much, of course (but then you know that). I had similar stats over about 70.. now I'm over 100 they've settled down to about 41% ITM, 28% ROI (still very reasonable.. but still too small a sample size)
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#3
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yeah, 56 games isnt any significant sample size.
but the purpose of this post is how i thought i was doing poorly in those 56 games and feeling down. but thx to the tracking program, i was actually killing the game. geez.. how the hell do you underestimate roi by 30%? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] but that is much better than overestimating by 30%... lol |
#4
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I know why this is. It is because when you get knocked out it is a somewhat memorable situation. I have a solid win rate lately but it feels like I'm wading through mud. Because almost every time I get knocked out I am favourite to win and they draw out on me. So it feels like variance is raping me.
And the times I win the tourney don't really stick in my mind because hey - that is supposed to happen. |
#5
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I tried not looking at my stats regularly but I found that I almost always felt like I had done worse at the end of the day than I actually had.
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