An example of why I don't like the PT aggression factor

[MaxPower]

PartyPoker - $15/$30 - 8 players

MP2 is 55/1.8/.55 over 1150 hands. These stats spell calling station right?

Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

PreFlop
<font color="blue">UTG folds</font>, <font color="blue">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="blue">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="green">MP2 Calls</font>, <font color="blue">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Button RAISES</font>
<font color="red">Hero RAISES</font>, <font color="blue">BB folds</font>, <font color="green">MP2 Calls</font>, <font color="green">Button Calls</font>

(3 players) FLOP: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: 5 BB )
<font color="red">Hero BETS</font>, <font color="red">MP2 RAISES</font>, <font color="blue">Button folds</font>
<font color="red">Hero RAISES</font>, <font color="red">MP2 RAISES</font>
<font color="green">Hero Calls</font>

(2 players) TURN: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: 9 BB )
<font color="red">Hero BETS</font>, <font color="red">MP2 RAISES</font>
<font color="green">Hero Calls</font>

(2 players) RIVER: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( Pot Size: 13 BB )
<font color="green">Hero checks</font>, <font color="green">MP2 checks</font>

Final Pot:13 BB

Results in white below:
<font color="white">SB shows:KsKc,two pairs, kings and queens</font>
<font color="white">MP2 shows:9c5c,two pairs, queens and twos</font>

How many calling stations play like this? This is not an unusual hand for this guy.

[DcifrThs]

AF is relative.

55% of his hands are played. lots of trash.

he checks or calls ON AVERAGE about 1/2 the amount that he bets or raises over the total # of observed hands.

a 55vpip is almost never a calling station.

-Barron

[DrSavage]

My example:
Villain is 62.31/0/0.25
Let's say i don't catch a set on river, would you call a river donkbet knowing he's 0.25 AF?

Party Poker (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">UTG calls, MP calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, UTG calls, MP calls. </font>.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets, UTG folds, MP calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP checks, Hero bets, MP calls.

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP bets, Hero raises, MP calls.

MP shows K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (high card ace)
Hero shows 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (three of a kind, eights)

Edit: converter has butchered the hand for some reason so i had to put in the action myself hence the weird formatting.

[mike l.]

scary stuff. great posts guys. im done with the AF stat.

[stigmata]

Slightly offtopic but related:

I notice that many loose players with a very low PFR will raise with any pocket pair (except aces, lol), and sometimes with suited connectors or even trash.

Also, their re-raising standards can be really quite loose in contrast to their PFR -- e.g. they are going to play anyway, so they decide to gamble and cap it.

To clarify, I am arguing that preflop aggression statistics can also be misleading for passive players. A preflop raise of 5% means that they raise 5% of hands, but not necessarily the top 5%.

Your sample size could also be too small, but we don't want to labour that point [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
great posts guys. im done with the AF stat.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the wrong way of reading these posts.

Facts are:

1) As other poster said, with high VPIP they can have low AF and still bet a lot, its just that they call even more.

2) Of course stats (or any read we got on a player) sometimes leads us in the wrong direction. A read doesnt have to be right all of the time, it just has to be right most of the time.

Say I got a read on a player as being extremly passive and he raises me on every street with nothing. Well, the only thing I have to do is write a longer note on him: "Extremly passive but a bit tricky, sometimes doing idiotic bluffs over multiple streets."

We had a good read on him, now we have a better.

[gonores]

[ QUOTE ]
AF is relative.

55% of his hands are played. lots of trash.

he checks or calls ON AVERAGE about 1/2 the amount that he bets or raises over the total # of observed hands.

a 55vpip is almost never a calling station.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

Well said.

[DrSavage]

[ QUOTE ]
scary stuff. great posts guys. im done with the AF stat.

[/ QUOTE ]
That made me laugh.

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
AF is relative.

55% of his hands are played. lots of trash.

he checks or calls ON AVERAGE about 1/2 the amount that he bets or raises over the total # of observed hands.

a 55vpip is almost never a calling station.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

Checking does not factor into the aggression computation except where he checks and then calls. It is:

(Bet% + Raise%)/Call%

So I think .55 means that he calls twice as often as he bets or raises.

Two players with the same VP$IP and AF aggresion can have very different styles. For example you can have a AF aggresion factor of .5 if you bet or raise 25% of the time and call 50% of the time. You can also have a .5 if you bet or raise 10% of the time and call 20% of the time.

Now I do think we can make use of this information, but it is a problematic measure. I think it would be much more useful if we just had the numerator and denominator as seperate stats.

[Paluka]

I think it is odd that you guys are saying AF doesn't mean that much. In NatetheGreat's statistical study, AF was more correlated to winning than any other stat I believe.