5/10 QQ hand

jason_t · #1 08-10-2005, 06:44 AM

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: I am MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP1 raises, I 3-bet, 1 fold, Button calls, SB calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls.

Flop: (13 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets, I raise, Button calls, SB calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, I bet, Button calls, SB folds, MP1 calls.

River: (13.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, I....

Carmine · #2 08-10-2005, 07:00 AM

I put MP1 on TT and button on missed flush draw. If MP1 is on Ax he won't bet in fear of getting C/Raised by a J. If you bet, TT has alot more ways to lose on the river so he may not even call a bet and the busted flush surley isn't calling. I think this is a C/Call situation unless it's two back to you of course. Rarely anything to gain and one more bet to lose. IMO

toss · #3 08-10-2005, 07:06 AM

I'd check and hope Button checks behind. I'm having a hard time placing MP1 on a hand that we beat and he'll call with if he bets the river. I'll call if SB bets and MP1 folds.

Klepton · #4 08-10-2005, 07:07 AM

c/c

thejameser · #5 08-10-2005, 10:54 AM

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c/c

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rmarotti · #6 08-10-2005, 06:35 PM

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c/c

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Weak. You are beating the main villain and probably beating the button. This definitely isn't the easiest value bet ever, but i don't see it as terribly thin either.

W. Deranged · #7 08-10-2005, 06:57 PM

What range of hands do you put our respective villains on where we can expect to win more than our fair share?

jason_t · #8 08-10-2005, 06:58 PM

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What range of hands do you put our respective villains on where we can expect to win more than our fair share?

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What are your thoughts on my post in this thread?

W. Deranged · #9 08-10-2005, 07:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands do you put our respective villains on where we can expect to win more than our fair share?

[/ QUOTE ]

What are your thoughts on my post in this thread?

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I think your analysis is good, but I have to feel it's a little optimistic. A few thoughts:

1. Why are we totally disregarding the fact that MP1 could be leading the flop with overcards? Is a hand like AQ, maybe with a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or two, might well lead this flop even after the flop raise. It might also check-call the river even after hitting the A because of the fear of trips. There's no reason to assume my opponent wouldn't play overcards in such a loose-weak fashion.

2. An optimistic range of hands for villain where 99 and TT are heavily represented is not even that great for value-betting, because such hands might very often intend to call down but get scared by the A and realize they really can't beat anything, and hence fold the river. So the river is bad in the sense it not only puts up an obvious card to beat us but it also kills action.

3. I think it is very, very optimistic to think the late position villain will be calling here with anything we are beating. After calling two cold on the flop, his range will heavily dominated by draws. I don't see smaller pocket pairs calling all the way down here. I'd need a very specific read that villain was a massive fishcake to play along those lines.

4. I think that the degree to which this board is action-killing in general is being overlooked. The top flop card paired, and an A hit the river. We are still likely to have the best hand but the board is so thoroughly scary by this point that all the reasonable hands which we could have expected to call our value bets going into the river will become more discouraged.

I just think it's too thin.

JoshuaD · #10 08-10-2005, 08:37 AM

Check/call looks best to me. MP1's got TT here sometimes, but he's much more likely to have an A, and he might fold the TT to a bet anyway.