EV hand

[Marshfield]

I had played player H a ton and I knew that his bet meant he has AA very slim chance of KK. So it was pretty much a fit or fold situation. I was Pretty sure player P had big ace or a middle pair below me.

Level V: 100/200 Blinds (25 Minimum Chip)
Average Stack: 11,111.11 (10,000 starting chips)
Remaining Players: 18 (20 started)
Seat 1 : P starts with 16,125
Seat 2 : Y starts with 7,375
Seat 4 : M starts with 12,875
Seat 5 : H starts with 13,050
Seat 6 : D starts with 8,600
Seat 7 : F starts with 11,075
Seat 8 : T starts with 2,225
Seat 9 : P starts with 10,800
Seat 10 : J starts with 8,225
Seat 8 : T has the dealer button
>>>DEALING HOLE CARDS<<<
M dealt down 9h 9s
P posts the small blind 100
J posts the big blind 200
P raises 800 to 1,000
Y folds
M calls 1,000
H raises 2,000 to 3,000
D folds
F folds
T folds
P folds
J folds
P calls 2,000
M calls 2,000
>>>DEALING FLOP<<< [ 9c 5c 2c ]
P checks
M bets 9,875 and is all-in
H: you got a flush?
Y: he's got KJ of clubs
T: he has the A
M: maybe
H called time
H: maybe not
H: ok
H: I'll gamble with you
H calls 9,875
Y: I'm just traumatized from your last flush
D: HES FULL OF WIND
M: gl
H: I have enough left for bus fare when I lose
P called time
D: lol
P folds
M cards were 9s 9h
H cards were Ac Ah
>>>DEALING TURN<<< [ 4s ]
>>>DEALING RIVER<<< [ Td ]
M wins 29,050 with three of a kind, nines


Assuming this really is a fit or fold situation are the implied odds there?

You will not flop a set 88.24% of the time. When you do you'll still lose 8% of the time.

Fold on Flop: 88.24% * lose $2000 = -1765

Flop a Nine: 11.76%

Win 92% * 11.76% * (7100 pot + approximately $10K more of H's stack) = 1839
Lose 8% * 11.76% * 11875 (What M has left) = -112

NET EV = -38

This is under the assumption that you can you are getting the re-raisers stack 100% of the time if he folds it's less. The second player in the pot was what made me think I had the odds to call. I can see senarios where I can get both people's stacks but it is a very long shot. I could see P having a hand like AQ and getting a Q96 flop and I get all their chips or all of H's and part of P's. But if you cancel out when you'll get less then all of H's stack coupled with all of H's plus part of P's it's a EV- move over time. This does not account for bluffing but lets call that break even too.

The only question that remains is you'll only bust here 1% of the time.

89% of the time you bleed 2k in chips down to 10K but you're still alive and healthy.

10% of the time you'll have a stack of 29k with the averages being only 11K.

Is the EV- hand move worth having a 29K stack 1 in every 10 tourneys vs busting 1/100 and being slightly below average 9/10 times?

Now this was a very small tourney what about the TEV for a large tourney on this move?

[Exitonly]

That's also assuming you only win when you hit your set. You can bet/raise into non-threatening boards. If you're playing it solely for set value, might be a bit too big of a bet to call preflop.

[Marshfield]

I'm calling that a wash with bluffing\drawing and getting both stacks balancing each other off to make it less complicated.