AK with gutshot, raise, fold or call?

[MrEngenic]

The table was not very loose. This was the first time there were many limpers in EP so I didn't put them on crappy hands.
On the turn, do I have odds to continue to draw or should I give him credit for two pair/set or a hand that dominates mine like AQ, AT?
Raise for a free showdown since he could be on a flush draw? Call turn and river?



Party 2/4 full

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
EP1 calls, EP2 calls, EP3 calls, Hero raises, folded around, limpers call

Flop: (8 sb) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
EP1 bets, EP2 folds,EP3 calls, Hero calls

Turn: (5 BB) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
EP1 bets, EP3 folds, Hero?

i'd raise the flop for sure. get yourself a probable free card on the turn and put pressure on ep3, who only wants to call. fold the river unimproved, of course. if ep reraises, then re-evaluate (and probably peel one off and fold unimproved).

as the hand stands, call the turn. 2 overs (6 outs, discounted to 4.5 for flush/straight/2pair/domination taint) and a gutshot (3 clean outs, one flush-tainted, for maybe 3.5 outs) is still about 8 good outs. that's more than enough in this pot to call getting 6:1.

[toss]

I think you're being too generous with the overcard outs.

[Shillx]

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I think you're being too generous with the overcard outs.

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Maybe, but this is a clear call IMO.

Brad

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I think you're being too generous with the overcard outs.

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howso? a little more explanation would be more helpful.

[toss]

I dunno. I'd probably lower the outs for overcards to 3.0 becuase I think the threat of reverse domination/flush is bigger.

[einbert]

This is not a very good flop for your hand, I don't think raising is going to be better than calling here. But I do think calling is better than folding.

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This is not a very good flop for your hand, I don't think raising is going to be better than calling here. But I do think calling is better than folding.

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raising is not better even though you have position and a good chance for a free card with a hand that you'll want to take to the river?

[W. Deranged]

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This is not a very good flop for your hand, I don't think raising is going to be better than calling here. But I do think calling is better than folding.

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raising is not better even though you have position and a good chance for a free card with a hand that you'll want to take to the river?

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Yet another chapter in the great ongoing metaphysical discussion that is "how to play overcards"...

Personally, I don't exactly see what a raise accomplishes here. I think the earlier contributions discussing hero's outs are excellent, and I feel that it's tough to put villain on more than about 7-8 outs here. Given that, I don't think we have a value raise here. The fact that a tightish villain bet into a large field including the pre-flop raiser on the flop suggests quite a bit of strength, and hence you will be three-bet quite often here. You do not clear up any outs with a raise here. Hence, the flop play is very clearly a call in my opinion.


I think this is a reasonable time to outline a few thoughts I've had (gleaned mostly from others on this board) about playing overcards. Assuming we have enough equity to continue playing overcards:

We should tend to raise when:

-We presumably have an equity edge, particularly when flush/backdoor flush or clean straight outs give us additional outs.
-Raising will serve to clean up outs; namely, our overcards are somewhat weak, like KJ (though, note, we'd only probably only be raising in these situations when we had other reasons, like straight outs, to continue)
-We have reason to believe a raise will significantly improve our chances of winning the hand unimproved (hand protection); this applies particularly to the big hands like AK against laggish bettors (there can be sick opportunities for promo raises)
-We believe raising significantly increase our chances of getting villain to fold the best hand on a later street

We should tend to call when:

-We do not have a clear equity edge.
-Our overcards are very clean vis a vis other overcards, specifically with AK or AQ on a board without many draws; on these hands, we are very likely to be dominating other overcards, and allowing them to call behind us actually ADDS value to our hand; note that that this applies when our overcards are dirty because of straight or flush draws, but not dirty because of other overcards, as a raise is unlikely to force straight and flush draws out
-Action/reads by our villains suggest we are extremely likely to be three-bet; it is VERY important to realize that an attempted free-card play is very bad if we get three-bet; instead of saving ourselves on small bet over calling the flop and turn, we cost ourselves 2 small bets; therefore, if there's better than a 33% chance we'll get three-bet on the turn (and/or a high chance we'll get donk-bet on the turn) we should favor calling



These are what I consider the most important factors in the flop-overcard decision. I invite much vigorous discussion.

[MrEngenic]

I didn't think the flop play would be discussed so much. IMO raising cannot be right on the flop. I would rather fold than raise against these two. Since there is a bet and a call I could be facing a flush draw AND two pair/set/reverse dominating hand leaving me with 3 outs.

When it's HU on the turn I'm either up against a flush draw or a made hand. If I'm up against a made hand I don't think I have more than 4-7 outs, I very much doubt 10 outs. Against a flush draw I could be behind a flush draw with a pair like TJs or even ATs if I'm really unlucky.

Also, I wasn't sure if he would bet a flushdraw into this many players on the flop including a preflop raiser...