NCAA Tourney Theory

[Smackdab]

Now that we're at tourney time I would like to know everyone else's opinions on a couple of concepts.

Teams play tougher D.
About every analyst has mentioned at one time or another that defense wins tourneys. With alot of teams facing each other for the first time this year would you give an edge to the team with the better D? Or more to the point how much might this effect your consideration of the line?

Win and out
When considering games with tight lines. How much importance should be given to the fact that in tight games the losing team will be fouling to put the other team to the line perhaps more than they normally would?

Coaching
At this time of year I would think coaching would be a bigger factor in terms of the ability to make adjustments. Especially when it a round 2 pr 4 game and there is only 1 day to prepare for the next opponet. How much significance do you place on coaching?

Sometime I find myself unable to communicate my point succintly when writing so I hope these are understandable. Appreciates all opinions on the above questions.

[Wildbill]

Point 1
Not really. Talent and bench win now. Sure its nice to have good D, but the Ivy teams play great D and rarely win.

Point 2
Good analysts pay close attention to the FT% of teams as it is. Teams that shoot well from the line are almost invariably top quality teams and for obvious reasons win more than their fair share of games. Makes little difference for the lines when they are close, but can make a difference in a 4-8 point range.

Point 3
Coaching of course is important, but still its talent and depth that wins. In an even matchup of these then the coach plays a role. But even good coaches have poor teams at times and in those cases there isn't much they can do about it now is there? Coaches make a big difference very late in the tournament, especially Final 4. Think of all the media attention the teams get in that week and then play in a terrible stadium for hoops with the biggest crowds they have ever played in front of. This is the spot where a good coach has been there before and does a good job of preparing them for all this and helps them focus on the game and the strategy. During the game a good coach can change gears quickly if what he planned does work. Those little things get magnified later in the tourney, but are usually of minimal need early on.

[Smackdab]

Thanks for the response Bill. Informative as always.

In regards to free throw shooting. I would assume how often a team gets to the charity stripe as important as percentage made. Example:

UNLV vs UTAH
Utah shoots 71 % to UNLV 70%
However UNLV gets to the line more often
Therefore an edge should go to UNLV in that category based on the fact they most probably will have more oppurtunies. Is that correct?

[NajdorfDefense]

Smack, I would always give the edge to a team that plays truly solid D. An Ivy league school like Penn is not a good example - their D numbers come against Cornell and Columbia, not Kentucky and Xavier. St Joe's is like 2 or 3 in the country in D, that'll payoff big if West is healthy.

Leading me to point 2 - 3-pt%. You need a true marksman, or an all-around team. No Arizona was one of the easiest covers I ever had against #2 Cinci 3 years ago - NAz was #1 shooting team from 3 - over 40%!. They lost by 3 pts when the spread was 22. Look at recent big upsets: UNCW - Brett Blizzard. Creighton - Korver. Gonzaga, Tulsa, etc. Watch out for Pat Carroll and Jeff Schiffner this year.

Point 3 - You need a great PG who can break a press when his team is UP for the cover. Say you're laying 8 and up 10 with 2 to play. Guaranteed full-court press, right? If the PG throws away 1 or 2 passes - you lose even if they hit all their FTs.

Point 4 - FT shooting. Important no matter what side you're on. It makes THE difference in the first round if you're getting 2 or laying 22. 4 extra FTs a game probably increases your win % by 20-30%. NCSU and Wake hit a ton of FTs, for example.

Point 5 - bench. Necessary for covering any 10+ pt spread in the tourney. Especially early 'cos a coach my rest his best players when up 14 with 2 to play and let a good 'second team' take over. They better be able not to cough up easy shots or turnovers.

best,

Naj

[Clarkmeister]

A couple of things to look for that have served me very well over the years. Nothing earthshattering, but it works for me.

1. Quality backcourts. You advance in the tournament through great guard play.

2. Senior leadership. So many teams rely on Freshman and Sophomores that having a team with several starting seniors (and to a lesser extent Juniors) is key. I expect Pittsburgh to do very well for this reason.

3. Similar to #2 - Starting lineups that have played together a for multiple seasons. See Creighton this year.

4. Tournament tested lineup. NCAA tourney experience is a big big help. So many years you have a high seed (South Carolina a few years ago comes to mind) without much/any NCAA tourney exerience and they end up making early exits.

[ronzoni]

Cheerleader,sexy girls wear thong can distract opponents, bet UNDER. [img]/forums/images/icons/tongue.gif[/img]

[scalf]

[img]/forums/images/icons/tongue.gif[/img] that and 3d twirly things as background for shooting free throws [img]/forums/images/icons/smile.gif[/img]

[Clarkmeister]

I never considered the hot cheerleader angle. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.......