JUST IN: New Boxing Lines, Including Hopkins/Taylor II

[Tuds75]

Found these line on Sportsbook.com

08/13/05 Mayorga vs Piccirillo - Light Middleweight Fight -
Over 8.5 (-145) Under 8.5 (+115)

09/17/05 Super Featherweight Fight - Las Vegas NV
Marco Antonio Barrera -1100
Robbie Peden +600
Over 11.5 (-115) Under 11.5 (-125)

09/24/05 Light Welterweight Fight - Atlantic City NJ
Miguel Angel Cotto -1300
Gianluca Branco +700
Over 9.5 (+145) Under 9.5 (-185)

09/24/05 Heavyweight Fight - Atlantic City NJ
Samuel Peter -260
Wladimir Klitschko +200
Over 7.5 (+120) Under 7.5 (-160)

10/01/05 Light Heavyweight Fight - Las Vegas NV
Antonio Tarver -325
Roy Jones Jr +250
Over 9.5 (-120) Under 9.5 (-120)

10/08/05 Lightweight Fight - Las Vegas NV
Diego Corrales -115
Jose Luis Castillo -115
Over 9.5 (-130) Under 9.5 (-110)

12/03/05 Middleweight Fight - Action if fought within 90 days
Bernard Hopkins -125
Jermain Taylor -105
Over 10.5 (-300) Under 10.5 (+225)

My Thoughts:
- Mayorga's over for his fight looks interesting because since he moved up to 154 he doesnt have the same power he had at 147, plus he is working with Yoel Judah and he is teaching Mayorga some defense and it turns out, get this, Mayorga loves be a defensive fighter.
- The over in Cotto/Branco could be a nice dog bet. Branco went 12 rounds with Gatti and that is the Gatti that was on a KO tear after his fights trilogy with Ward. Cotto is rolling, but this Branco guys is tough. Could surprise people by going the distance with Cotto.
- WOW, -260 on Peter. I guess the odds makers agree with us on this board about the outcome. I can't belive that number. Now the "Peter to win" bet doesnt look good at that price. Tough call on the over/under too. I actually like the over RIGHT NOW, I think Peter will show everyone he can box and against his "toughest" competition he will need to or at least give Wlad the respect to box him instead of just going for the quick KO. I see Peter KO Wlad later in the fight instead of early in it.
- I REALLY like RJJ at +250. What a great Price.Yeah he might be coming back after back to back loses and a long lay off, but he is one of the best fighters of our generation. He has the skills and is not old, 36. Not to mention you should think outside the fight, RJJ is a bigger draw for the sport of boxing, he has a bigger name, the fans love him. Boxing needs RJJ to win this fight so he can go around and set up super-fights until he retires. Tarver does fight RJJ well. His style is good at neutrilizing RJJ's quickness. But in Tarver's last 2 fights he hasn't looked as good as he did in either of his Jones fights (in the 2nd fight w/ Johnson he looked good, but not as good as he did against RJJ the first time). Also lets not forget Tarver hit RJJ with a "lucky" punch in their 2nd fight. It exposed RJJ's chin to the world, so RJJ is not going to let that happen to himself twice. I think RJJ will exact some revenage for his first REAL loss, just looked what he did to Montell Griffin after his first lost. STAY AWAY FROM THE OVER/UNDER!!
- -300 on the Hopkins/Taylor II fight, I guess no more free money on this one, the bookies must of learned from their first fight. Now I do like the price on the under. At +225, I can see making a value wager on the under. Hopkins really rocked Taylor in the first fight and Taylor will be more conifident and ready for Hopkins now that he has been in the ring with him. Could see a KO by either fighter. I also like the price on Taylor. Taylor has got the belt and is determined to not lose it at close to even money and the dog I like him in the fight.

Just my early thoughts. My thoughts might change after I do some homework on each fight. We will just have to wait and see.

Tuds

[Indiana]

Tuds,

I really like Gianluca Branco. He gave Oscar De la Hoya the fight of his life and I think he actually won. I know that Cotto is everyone's favorite right now (i think he's overrated) but wouldnt this be a good over bet?

Indy

[Indiana]

Sorry Tuds,

I meant Gatti, not De La Hoya.

Indy

[Indiana]

Tuds,

I understand your theory on the price of lines, but come on, Hopkins/Taylor II is a lock to go 12 rounds.

Indy

[Indiana]

Sorry not to put all my thoughts in one post, I am incredibly busy and disorganized these days. I think RJJ will be badly beaten by Tarver and I would not take even +400. I will still bet on Peter and I think the under is a lock.

Indy

[Tuds75]

Indy,

Just wondering you thoughts on why Cotto is overrated? I have seen his last 4 fights on HBO and each time he looks better. I am the complete opposite , I think Cotto is VERY talented and will be a top 5 p4p fighter in 2 years. His fight with Abdulaev was one of the best fought fights I have seen in a long time. Abdulaev is a good fighter who beat Cotto as a amateur and when was getting hit, but he knew he had to move and keep throwing otherwise he was going to get tagged and he did it perfectly. He kept hitting Abdaulev in and moving. He worked on Abd's eye and did great body work too. Cotto is being brought along slowly and his promoters are handling him the perfect for him to be a star later in his career (he is only 24). Yes, the Chop-Chop stoppage was a hometown move, but Cotto was starting to take control. Branco will not win, Cotto's opponets are hand picked for him and there is NO WAY his promotion would put him in the ring against a guy who beat, they just want an opponet to test Cotto.

The under on the Mayorga fight is a STRONG bet. Mayorga is same 154 fighter as he was at 147. I mentioned earlier that he is working with Yoel Judah (Zab's papa) on defense and Mayorga is reported to love defense involved in boxing and he is taking to Judah's teaching very well. Expect to see Mayorga actually box in his fight. He will not be the old crazy Mayorga in the ring. Mayorga with a defensive game will be a tough boxer to fight.

Like some other fights we will have to disagree on RJJ. I personally don't really like the guy, but like I have said before, I LIKE MONEY. I have not been overly impressed with Tarver since his KO over RJJ with WAS a lucky punch (the punch was a blind overhand left). Anytime you can get one of the greatest boxers of all time at only age 36 as a 2 1/2 dog in a fight against a guy he has beat, I'll take it 9 out of 10 times.

Indy, I am really interested in your thoughts on why you dislike RJJ against Tarver that much and what about Mayorga's under?

Tuds

[Indiana]

Tuds,

Totally respect your ideas and I'm not certain about my own. I agree that Cotto will win, but it will likely be an over. Cotto is tough and he can hit like a mule but Branco'
s last few fights have been impressive. I would take the over. As for RJJ, you gotta love this guy. However, he has spent the last year jawing next to Larry Merchant and Tarver has been grinding it out with one of the toughest. RJJ WILL NOT WIN. He is done. As for Mayorga, I don't know that much about his opponent. I do know, however, that Mayorga does not connect well so I am not sure that the under is gold. Nobody knew a thing about Mayorga before the first Forrest fight where he pounded the pfp best at that time. Second fight after he had been exposed went 12 rounds. Then the Tito fight showed us that he is not invincible. I would seriously look into Mayorga's opponent before making an under bet. As you know, I watch boxing as a huge fan and I tend to rely on my gut more than the #s. I just don't see RJJ coming out and getting the job done. Tarver is a bigger guy. Cotto can hit, but Branco is veeeeery tough.

Whata I know?

Indy

[partygirluk]

I mnight have to sign up with sportsbook to get some money on WLad - bet of the year! ANy way of getting rakeback type deals or bonuses with sportsbook?

[Tuds75]

Indy,

In regards to the Mayorga fight, I have said in previous post that the under is a good bet, but after learning about him working on his defense w/ Yoel udah, I now think the OVER is the best bet in that fight and actually one of the better bets out there. More on that next week once the fight is closer.

Our Cotto/Branco discussion got crossed up. We are thinking the same thing, but misunderstood each other. Cotto=Good, Branco=Tough. I was at Pinnacle and found something interesting on the Cotto over/under:
Pinnacle sports: Over -175 & Under +165
Sportsbook.com: Over +145 & Under -185
This is really weird to see the top 2 sportsbooks online being completely the opposite on a bet.

About RJJ we will have to wait and see. My opion changes almost all the time, as I read more and think about the fights more. So I will better evaluate that fight as it nears, now it is just too far away and too many big fights between then and now.

What do you Think about Reid/Lacy. I won't be able to watch it so that will take away some of my motivation to bet on it. What do you think are good bets and should we even bet on this fight or save the $ and use in on next weeks Rahman/Mayorga/Barrett card?

Tuds

[Indiana]

partygirluk,

are u kidding me? do you even watch boxing? Instead of throwing $ at Wlad. Klit why dont you just transfer it to Indyguy28 at pokerstars.com, I'm sure he would put it to good use for you.

Indy