A theoretical caveat to Cartman's BB/steal attempt thread

sethypooh21 · #1 08-05-2005, 03:33 AM

Cartman's insightful thread got me thinking about this. (Original Post Here).

I think a large potential drawback of being seen as a "ASB-clown" as someone put it, (nice turn of phrase in a very poker-dork sort of way...) is not that you will get played back at alot by the blinds, but then your 'normal' raises (blinds UTG and MP) will be viewed with suspicion as well, and people might start playing back/calling down more.

Obviously this can cut either way, but my notion is that people taking shots at you when you are 'stealing' is never that bad, because you have position. If they're perception of you is 'raise-happy clown' regardless of the position of your raises, then one might get stuck in some dicey situations OOP with frequency. Obviously, we don't care about people getting frisky when we are coming strong with AA-TT,ATs, and all those other really tasty hands, but what about when we are raising a little light (88, QJ, etc...) or when our 'isolation raises' of fishies are unsuccesful when they might have been had we not been so raise happy in steal situations in the first place? A lot of our opponents won't go past "gee he's raising a lot in their analysis", so the differentiation between 'steal raises' and 'real raises' will not be in their thought process at all.

Obviously, there is no way to delve this deep into the metagame just using PT stats or whatever, but I'm just saying that looking at stealing as part of your game just in terms of BB/opportunity is slightly myopic.

Then again, this kind of rant may just be an indication that I shouldn't play graveyard shift as it does funny things to my head...

cartman · #2 08-05-2005, 09:06 AM

I think you are right that most opponents just think "This guy raises with anything" without observing that it is only in steal situations. But Nate and Nikla, and I think also Ulysses used to attribute alot of their success to a "near-maniacal" table image. Of course they were tremendously adept at capitalizing on this fact when they did have a real hand. I have played around 30/20 for quite a while now but I only recently started fastplaying almost all of my real hands starting right on the flop.

The typical TAG and many of the LAG's in the 5/10 game love to wait until the turn to raise his real hands (TPTK) or better. A flop raise is more often an indication of weakness than it is of strength. So when I raise the flop with AK on a KK2 board these guys often 3-bet me or even checkraise me on the turn because they *know* that if I really had the K that I would have waited until the turn to raise.

The downside of this is that now when I just call on the flop heads up, it does in fact mean that I am weak usually. But I take a call-call-call line often with a hand like JT on an AJx flop and against habitual bluffers I often take a call-call-raise line with a hand like Ax on an A hi flop.

I used to think the key was to balance my flop and turn play heads up in a way that my actions didn't reveal much about the strength of my hand. For instance when I used to wait until the turn to raise with my TPTK type hands, I almost never raised the flop HU. So my flop call could mean top pr, middle pr, bottom pr, a draw, overcards, or a monster. Hard to read a guy who does the same thing every time right?

But I think I overrated my opponents. It is important to disguise you hand if and only if your opponent will fold or back off when you have given a "sign" of strength. I have to constantly remind myself that the typical opponent will NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER fold a pair or even Ace high. The typical aggressive types (and this includes alot of the multitabling wannabe pros with TAG preflop stats) will NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER back down if you raise them. If you raise the flop they will 3-bet you or checkraise the turn nearly every time.

Excuse my rambling but I will sum the 5/10 game up as I see it (and the 3/6 was the same when I played it):

This is a value game. You will never make the typical opponent fold Ace high or better. Moves are pointless. Bet and raise relentlessly when you think you are in front. Play passively when you are convinced you are behind but the odds are such that you can't fold.

Cartman

MicroBob · #3 08-05-2005, 10:23 AM

well....now I'm at a quandry.

I liked your post...but I still make those types of moves (when it 'feels' right I guess).

I think that just assuming that they will NEVER EVER EVER EVER do that will still get you the dough. But I think it IS possible to induce folds of such hands....which is kind of nice if you don't have diddly-squat.
But I think you are generally correct that you don't have to be THAT fancy and that it's much easier to over-do it then to just play pretty much straight-forward and get the dough the old-fashioned way.

FWIW - I almost always push my my flopped trips for pretty much the same reasons you give.
There's no reason to wait.

Obviously a turn check-raise just SCREAMS that he has the trips. But I've also been noticing quite a few thinking-LAG's who aren't afraid to try check-raise bluffs here too.
But, for me, waiting for the turn to get the C/R in just isn't going to get me very far.

Basically...if I have AK on a flop of AKK I'll push it as much as I can with hopes that K5 and AT are out there in my opponents holdings.

witeknite · #4 08-05-2005, 10:36 AM

You are correct that many players are completly unaware when it comes to position. Go look in PT for the position stats on a couple of PF lags with a big sample size. I did that and saw that they have pretty much the same VP$IP and PFR between UTG and Button. Since people tend to project their thought processes on to others (us giving an idiot's UTG raise more credit than this button raise is a good example of this), the fish think you raise alot all around and thus are full of it.

WiteKnite

timprov · #5 08-05-2005, 10:38 AM

'raise-happy clown' is a good summation of my typical table image. It works pretty well against players who actually try to put you on hands. Probably not so well at Party.

meow_meow · #6 08-05-2005, 10:43 AM

I think I agree with both Cartman's post and Bob's reply. A couple of days ago I stuck a post it note with "VALUE BET" in fat black letters on the wall above my laptop, right at eye level - by far my biggest leak, I think because it's easy to say "yeah, I won the pot", and ignore the fact that you missed a whole BB by checking behind on the river.

So yes, I think the typical opponent will never fold any type of hand, call all the way with a gutshot or two overs, and moves are never going to work on them. There are also (yes, even in 5-10), a reasonable number of decent or semi-decent players against whom you can play differently. Tight players who can fold TPWK to a turn cr, LAGy players who will use the turn cr as a bluff/semi-bluff.

PT/PV makes identifying these players soooo much easier.

cartman · #7 08-05-2005, 10:57 AM

I certainly didn't mean to imply that other players don't bluff raise or bluff checkraise the turn, because they do. There are plently of LAG's who can almost be counted on to raise the turn heads up regardless of their cards. I was merely saying that we shouldn't make those plays against the great majority of opponents. There are a few who are capable of folding and against them, we have many more weapons in our arsenal.

But there is probably not one player in 100 who is capable of folding top pair to a turn raise under any circumstances. There is probably not one in 25 who can even fold middle pair. I don't avoid these bluff raise or semi-bluff raise because I am uncomfortable with them or unsure of the proper context for them, I avoid them because they will only usually succeed when our opponent is pure bluffing with K high or less and even then he will usually call the turn raise requiring us to bluff again on the river and still not know if he will let it go.

Cartman

meow_meow · #8 08-05-2005, 05:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]

But I think I overrated my opponents. It is important to disguise you hand if and only if your opponent will fold or back off when you have given a "sign" of strength. I have to constantly remind myself that the typical opponent will NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER fold a pair or even Ace high. The typical aggressive types (and this includes alot of the multitabling wannabe pros with TAG preflop stats) will NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER back down if you raise them. If you raise the flop they will 3-bet you or checkraise the turn nearly every time.

[/ QUOTE ]

hand from 5 minutes ago to illustrate this point:
Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, BB calls.

Flop: (4 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (5 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, BB calls.

Final Pot: 7 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has 3h 3d (two pair, kings and queens).
BB has 5s 2h (two pair, kings and queens).
Outcome: BB wins 7 BB.