A Raise Anywhere?

[QTip]

Party Poker (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

EP raises, LP cc, sb calls, I call

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

sb donk bets (he loves to donk bet into a PF raiser. I've seen him do it with middle pair, and strong draws, however, he follows up a small % of the time on the turn without some improvement) I know a raise is coming because EP is aggressive. Another thought I had was to raise this flop. I probably have at least 10 weighted outs against the donk better and there's a possibility I could get rid of big overcards in case they fall, and the EP raiser was raising with AJo and so forth so he's most likely to have overcards. However, he didn't play well postflop and probably wouldn't fold them anyway. Thoughts on this if he were tighter postflop?

I call, EP raises, LP folds, I call

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>

So..I catch my straight, but sb donk bets again. He's improved somehow and the most obvious is the flush draw. I just call. I'm thinking I may be better off just getting EPs bet than raising here, knocking him out and risking an expensive 3 bet from a flush. Also, I don't think EP would fold a big heart, but should I charge him more to draw to it if he has it?

EP calls.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>

sb bets. Here's where I was most inclinded to raise. EP is free rolling now with probably the 3rd best hand. Again, I was thinking I could get his overcall and not risk a 3 bet from possible flush. If he didn't have the flush, I'm sure I would only get 1 from him anyway. However, EP will now probably call 2 bb with a big A.

I call

What do you think?

[callmedonnie]

[ QUOTE ]
I've seen him do it with middle pair, and strong draws, however, he follows up a small % of the time on the turn without some improvement)...I catch my straight, but sb donk bets again. He's improved somehow and the most obvious is the flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I raise turn. AJ may be willing to pay, and if has the A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or other high card hearts you need to make him pay for it. Plus, you have a straight and sb seem to like donk betting w/ hands not necessarily as good as a flush.

[Entity]

Fold preflop. Not raising the turn because you fear a flush is just plain bad poker. If he's passive you raise and fold to a 3-bet. If he's not you raise and call down if 3-bet. But for christ's sake, raise.

I really do think preflop is very bad here too. You're facing an EP raise and you're getting 7:1 OOP with T9o.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. Not raising the turn because you fear a flush is just plain bad poker. If he's passive you raise and fold to a 3-bet. If he's not you raise and call down if 3-bet. But for christ's sake, raise.

I really do think preflop is very bad here too. You're facing an EP raise and you're getting 7:1 OOP with T9o.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the thoughts Entity.

I disagree with you on the PF play, and I know that some other very good players in this forum do as well. I posted a hand where a tag called my raise getting 7:1 and I thought that was bad.

The thought seemed to be that T9o was good here, but not something most likely dominated like QJo.

Anyway, I felt very weak when I didn't raise the turn and thought it was poor poker. However, given my specific read on this guy, I felt his flush was pretty probable. The other thing was that I didn't want to fold in this pot to a 3 bet, and I knew that would probably be the best play. I just wanted to show this down....and I still feel weak saying it.

[SippinSoma]

Given your read there's a also a good chance he has a strong pair, two pair, or set.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
Given your read there's a also a good chance he has a strong pair, two pair, or set.

[/ QUOTE ]

He had J8 and caught 2 pair on the turn. So, my read was good, as I figured he improved in some way.

I was trying to think of some # of combinations while I was on the turn thinking. The problem was that he's so loose it's hard to narrow anything down. I should have thought more about the possibility that he had a strong made hand on the flop because he would have played the hand the same way. I would say he's more likely to have a strong pair a set or 2 pair then he does the flush.

EP would have stayed in with a big heart, sb pays me off to showdown, I do believe I missed 2 BB here, and maybe 4 if EP would call UI after the pot gets inflated.

Lesson learned.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
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Given your read there's a also a good chance he has a strong pair, two pair, or set.

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He had J8 and caught 2 pair on the turn. So, my read was good, as I figured he improved in some way.

I was trying to think of some # of combinations while I was on the turn thinking. The problem was that he's so loose it's hard to narrow anything down. I should have thought more about the possibility that he had a strong made hand on the flop because he would have played the hand the same way. I would say he's more likely to have a strong pair a set or 2 pair then he does the flush.

EP would have stayed in with a big heart, sb pays me off to showdown, I do believe I missed 2 BB here, and maybe 4 if EP would call UI after the pot gets inflated.

Lesson learned.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some combos:

any two hearts = 36

T9 = 9

J8 = 9
J7 = 9
J4s = 3
87 = 9
84s = 3
44 = 3
77 = 3
88 = 3

If he'll donk-bet again if he flopped a pair and now has a four-flush to go with it, or because he had a pair and just picked up a gutshot, that adds a lot of additional combos you're currently ahead of.

Of course, your hand will never improve, while his will sometimes outdraw yours, but if he's very loose preflop, the situation on the turn does seem favorable to me, especially if he doesn't make loose preflop calls with suited cards in particular.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. Not raising the turn because you fear a flush is just plain bad poker. If he's passive you raise and fold to a 3-bet. If he's not you raise and call down if 3-bet. But for christ's sake, raise.

I really do think preflop is very bad here too. You're facing an EP raise and you're getting 7:1 OOP with T9o.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the thoughts Entity.

I disagree with you on the PF play, and I know that some other very good players in this forum do as well. I posted a hand where a tag called my raise getting 7:1 and I thought that was bad.

The thought seemed to be that T9o was good here, but not something most likely dominated like QJo.

Anyway, I felt very weak when I didn't raise the turn and thought it was poor poker. However, given my specific read on this guy, I felt his flush was pretty probable. The other thing was that I didn't want to fold in this pot to a 3 bet, and I knew that would probably be the best play. I just wanted to show this down....and I still feel weak saying it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like to know which players you're talking about. Here are the specifics:

An unknown EP raise (or unstated). A coldcaller (donk), a second coldcaller (donk), 7:1.

Jason says mathematically you need 11:1 here. I'm comfortable at around 10:1. The big problem is that 4-handed you're not getting paid on a draw, and while your top pairs will hold up sometimes, you're in a reverse implied odds situation quite frequently.

There are situations in which I would call this. Unless you're holding back something on us, this is not one of them.

Also, if you are unable to raise the turn, for fear of a flush or whatever else, it is clear (to me) that you are incapable of playing this hand well enough to call preflop getting 7:1. No offense meant. Just my not-so-humble opinion.

Rob

[Jake (The Snake)]

This has always been a borderline call for me from the BB.

I tend to think about preflop equity % a little too much for my own good but here's my thinking. I've done a bunch of PS runs on BB play and here, for example, Hero has like 19% equity preflop. So if this was an all-in situation, Hero would be correct to call getting only 5-1.

Now obviously this isn't all-in and there are lots of other factors at play especially reverse implied odds and position. But does it really cut it down so much that 10 or 11 to one is needed?

Also, I think that a hand like T9o should be relatively easy to play since we can just easily fold if we don't hit a really good flop. Also, we play better than our opponents postflop.

How did Jason come up with the 11-1 number? Very interested.

[chief444]

Rob,

Your's truly, for one.

I did a filter on PT just now after Owen asked me to look at the hand (and other than preflop I agree obviously he should raise the turn). It's a small sample (like 60 hands) but in this exact situation (raise and 4 to the flop in a full game) with 67o-9To I'm well positive. And by well I mean .29 BB/hand. Granted, I realize this is inflated due to the ridiculously small sample. But generally speaking I'm about 50% calling a raise in the BB (overall, lower percentage for against steal) and my BB # is (.15) last I looked. That's pretty good compared to what I've seen others post. I'm not saying everyone in the forum should be playing more out of the BB. But I think you and some others who play very well postflop but think this is a bad call should be.

Pokerstove has 9To against an EP raising range and two 30% callers at a little over 18% when I just ran it. I'm not all that big on simulations though but I thought I'd share since I did look.

Also, his relative position here is good.

I will add that I tighten up if say the coldcallers are better players. But with two loose opponents I think this call is absolutely fine.

Matt