Final table w/ 77 & a possible resteal

[billyjex]

Party $55, down to 6 out of 390.

Payouts are: 1st - 5k 2nd - 3k 3rd - 2k 4th - 1.5k 5th 1.1k 6th - 900

Stack sizes are:
UTG : 75k
UTG+1: 35k
CO: 45k
Button (Villian): 74k
SB: 130k
BB (Hero): 54k

Blinds are 2/4k.

Reads on villian: Unfortunately, I don't know how aggressive he is with a big stack. He has doubled up twice in the past 3 orbits to go from the short stack to in contention. The previous hand he completed the SB, the BB checked, and he bet the flop and took it down. That's pretty much all I have (he was fairly conservative as the short stack as the FT began, but once he moved up in the pay ladder a couple times he pushed w/ A3 in EP.) I think he's pretty tight, somewhat aggressive, but he probably plays his cards and not his opponents.

I've been playing fairly conservatively.

Folded to the villian, who raises to 16k. The standard raise at the table has been 10-12k.

SB folds and I look down at red 77. I have 50k left after posting. If I push, villian will have to call 38k to win 72k, roughly getting 2 to 1.

1) Do I have folding equity?

2) Puuuuuuuuuuush?

[durron597]

My instinct says "Puuuuuuuuuuush" since the pay jumps don't start getting big until the final two or three places. A raise to 16k makes it seem like he doesn't want action, but of course he could be tricky in that sense. If you've been playing conservatively he probably expects you to have a hand if you come over the top.

A stop and go is not correct. You are just barely too deep. If you had 32k-50k I would stop and go.

[People_Mover]

My instinct also says POOSH it, but I don't hate folding. I do however hate a stop and go. I probably push and hope to win a race.

[iMsoLucky0]

My instinct is to fold. There are several reasons I think I would fold. First, with the blinds still relatively small you still have plenty of time to outplay your opponents or pick up big(ger) hand to double through. Second, with a 4x BB raise, this just screams "I've got a middle PP and I'm calling anything" I could easily see him having 88-TT here and calling.

I don't think he is going to fold much here, but I could be wrong.

[DJ Sensei]

[ QUOTE ]
My instinct is to fold. There are several reasons I think I would fold. First, with the blinds still relatively small you still have plenty of time to outplay your opponents or pick up big(ger) hand to double through. Second, with a 4x BB raise, this just screams "I've got a middle PP and I'm calling anything" I could easily see him having 88-TT here and calling.

I don't think he is going to fold much here, but I could be wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, a bigger than usual raise sounds a lot like a middle pair that doesnt want to see a flop with overcards. I think if you push, you'll be called by 88-JJ, maybe even QQ. Occasionally it'll be overcards too, but why take a chance at a coinflip when you can pick a better situation and put your opponents to the tough decisions instead of making them yourself.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
a couple times he pushed w/ A3 in EP.

[/ QUOTE ]

gotta push. i don't care if you have FE.

[zambonidrivr]

is calling not an option? i think you can call and fold to a unfavorable flop, and still outplay the table. thoughts?

[burningyen]

[ QUOTE ]
A stop and go is not correct. You are just barely too deep. If you had 32k-50k I would stop and go.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't follow. If you push now and villain has overcards, he is getting great pot odds to call with 5 cards to come. If you stop 'n' go, you give him roughly 2:1 pot odds on a whiffed flop when he's 3:1 with 2 cards to come, which I thought was the point of the stop 'n' go. If villain has 88-TT then you're in trouble regardless, but you might get him to fold if a face card flops.

[billyjex]

i dunno, i'm still on the fence on this one. i think his 4x raise meant more like "I have a good hand that I'm willing to call with." like AK, and he flopped a K.