Shew! Big Pot.

[GrunchCan]

I felt like I was doing the right thing here. Was I?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

Button ($32.22)
SB ($7.37)
BB ($24.50)
UTG ($36)
UTG+1 ($11.25)
MP1 ($43.15)
Hero ($27.70)
MP3 ($10.35)
CO ($5.23)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $0.25, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $3</font>, MP1 calls $3, Hero calls $3, MP3 folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: ($10.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets $3</font>, Hero ... ?

Folding seems clearly wrong here. Are my choices call or push? Does pushing give me a better chance to win here?

[deadmoney98]

I don't see any real problem with just calling the turn bet, but you can probably take down the pot with a good raise. Pushing seems like an overbet than can only be called by better hands, but of course you will have outs, possibly as many as 17 if your opponent holds two pair.

[-Skeme-]

I call.

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pushing accomplishes nothing but busting me, eh?

[Malachii]

I don't really see any reason to push here.

[CamelZoo]

v interesting spot, i had to think about it for a while. at first i liked a raise to ten, but you still have UTG to worry about, and you're losing to a set, 2p, and straight, albeit with outs. if you raise to 10 you are committed to a push by your opponents.

in my book, the smartest play is a call, with the following reasoning... it is very realistic that you're up against at the very least 2 pair from UTG, and i suspect MP1 hit his KJ straight and wants to induce callers. weird bet by him, maybe he wants to keep you drawing, and wants UTG to c/r his set. pray that UTG doesn't checkraise in order to see the river. but i think that if you call he will raise, and probably MP1 will push. either way, i don't think you're taking it down there with a push. so, call, pray for a call by utg, and fold to any push, and call any reasonable RR where you are last to act and not committed on the river.

peeeeeeeace.

[-Skeme-]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing accomplishes nothing but busting me, eh?

[/ QUOTE ]

It'll fold out the hands you beat and get you called by ones that beat you. I call here because I don't know what his bet means. I've seen lots of players use this pattern with big hands. I've raised them here on scare cards trying to take it away, and they often reraise me. You might possibly have the best hand currently, and if not, you have like a good amount of outs. If I knew he was loose and this bet meant he was weak, I'd raise a bit for value. I just don't want to get blown off of my hand when he's already pricing me in perfectly.

Edit: I originally read the hand wrong. I thought UTG bet both times. Now that someone else is betting, I call for sure. I would like a cheap card for my flush.

[vulturesrow]

Grunch,

I think this is clearly a hand that benefits from some mathematical analysis. Here is the likely range of hands I put your two villains on up to this point.

UTG: Given flop action, probably has top pair with a decent kicker. His overbet of the flop at these stakes is screaming "I have top pair and dont want to lose to the flush draw". He may even have top 2pr.

MP1: A little wider range of hands given the action so far. Its possible he has a set of 6s or KJo. He could have a weaker Ace than you as well. I actually think this is the most likely.

So given these range of hands, here is your equity from 2 Pokerstove enumerations I did. In the first run, I gave him KJo, in the second, I added KJs. I think that KJo is much more likely thatn KJs but I figured Id give you the worst case scenario.

---
161,070 games 0.130 secs 1,239,000 games/sec

Board: 6s Ts Qd Ac
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 12.2667 % 12.21% 00.06% { Q2o+ }
Hand 2: 37.5669 % 28.74% 08.83% { 66, A5s-A2s, A5o-A2o, KJo }
Hand 3: 50.1664 % 41.40% 08.77% { As9s }


---



---
174,804 games 0.170 secs 1,028,258 games/sec

Board: 6s Ts Qd Ac
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 11.4485 % 11.38% 00.07% { Q2o+ }
Hand 2: 40.8529 % 32.70% 08.15% { 66, A5s-A2s, KJs, A5o-A2o, KJo }
Hand 3: 47.6986 % 39.62% 08.08% { As9s }


---


So you can see in what I consider to be the more likely scenario, you are way ahead. Even in the worst case scenario, you have a small but significant equity edge.

Now on to how to play it. For all intents and purposes, UTG is drawing dead and I have a feeling he wont stick around no matter what you do. So I am not concerned with him. I think the question of how to play lies with what we think of MP1 donk bet on the turn. If you push, I dont think he is sticking around without the set or the straight. Most times these weak leads suggest a hand is ok but that the bettor doesnt really want to put a lot of money on. I like calling, and then evaluating the river. You have position here so you have a lot of options on the river so I am not to worried about trying to end this hand on the turn, especially given the fact that you may already be winning.

PS. I put a lot of thought into this post, mostly to try and return the favor on the all posts you made in the microlimits forum [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[GrunchCan]

vulturesrow -

Thanks for the great post. I like the analysis. Although I will say one thing, and it has to do with all hot-cold type analysis. They assume that every holding is just as likely as the next, which is actually never the case. For instance, is it really likely that UTG has Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] just as often as he has Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]? Some hands are definitely more likely than others. But this sort of analysis is still very useful in gaguing equity levels. Thanks again.

[vulturesrow]

Absolutely. It just gives your equity given the possible range of hands. Its up to you to then weight them accordingly by probability. I could probably narrow that hand range down some and get some even better numbers. But notice with what is the absolute worst case scenario you are essentially even money. You might be beat now but you have a lot of river outs. Bottom line on this hand, just call ane reevaluate the river. REsults? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]