2-4 NL Party Lay down this AA?

[FatalError]

***** Hand History for Game 2460146272 *****
$400 NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, August 01, 13:35:24 EDT 2005
Table Table 54661 (6 max) (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: SeaWassssp ( $751.10 )
Seat 3: vincent101 ( $544.60 )
Seat 5: jsnM3 ( $590.92 )
Seat 6: SickValueBet ( $414.60 )
Seat 2: grannydonk ( $490.40 )
Seat 4: Virtuosity_1 ( $415.10 )
vincent101 posts small blind [$2].
Virtuosity_1 posts big blind [$4].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to SickValueBet [ Ac Ah ]
jsnM3 calls [$4].
SickValueBet raises [$16].
SeaWassssp folds.
grannydonk folds.
vincent101 calls [$14].
Virtuosity_1 folds.
>You have options at Table 36836 (6 max) Table!.
jsnM3 calls [$12].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4d, Js, 9s ]
vincent101 checks.
>You have options at Table 36756 (6 max) Table!.
jsnM3 checks.
SickValueBet bets [$36].
vincent101 folds.
jsnM3 calls [$36].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Kd ]
>You have options at Table 36756 (6 max) Table!.
jsnM3 checks.
SickValueBet bets [$100].
jsnM3 calls [$100].
** Dealing River ** [ 2h ]
>You have options at Table 36756 (6 max) Table!.
>You have options at Table 36756 (6 max) Table!.
jsnM3 bets [$150].

Am i winning here 1 out of 3 times?
I feel like so many bad players make these river donk bets when they were slowplaying and all of a sudden did'nt want to risk checking the river

[redtrain]

with all the draws on the board, he didn't flop a made hand. My guess would be Q10, would he limp with that hand UTG and call a raise?

[Yeti]

This is an easy call.

[macdafunk]

I think you have to call b/c you bet so much on the turn, size of the pot, stack sizes.

if you want to bet 100+ on the turn, consider just moving in

I find that you will get played back at less often when you pick your spots like that. it is also laughable how many times they think you are on a total bluff and call w/ a weaker hand.

[FatalError]

thats an absurd overbet

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
***** Hand History for Game 2460146272 *****
$400 NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, August 01, 13:35:24 EDT 2005
Table Table 54661 (6 max) (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: SeaWassssp ( $751.10 )
Seat 3: vincent101 ( $544.60 )
Seat 5: jsnM3 ( $590.92 )
Seat 6: SickValueBet ( $414.60 )
Seat 2: grannydonk ( $490.40 )
Seat 4: Virtuosity_1 ( $415.10 )
vincent101 posts small blind [$2].
Virtuosity_1 posts big blind [$4].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to SickValueBet [ Ac Ah ]
jsnM3 calls [$4].
SickValueBet raises [$16].
SeaWassssp folds.
grannydonk folds.
vincent101 calls [$14].
Virtuosity_1 folds.
>You have options at Table 36836 (6 max) Table!.
jsnM3 calls [$12].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4d, Js, 9s ]
vincent101 checks.
>You have options at Table 36756 (6 max) Table!.
jsnM3 checks.
SickValueBet bets [$36].
vincent101 folds.
jsnM3 calls [$36].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Kd ]
>You have options at Table 36756 (6 max) Table!.
jsnM3 checks.
SickValueBet bets [$100].
jsnM3 calls [$100].
** Dealing River ** [ 2h ]
>You have options at Table 36756 (6 max) Table!.
>You have options at Table 36756 (6 max) Table!.
jsnM3 bets [$150].

Am i winning here 1 out of 3 times?


[/ QUOTE ]

I think so, so call.

[flawless_victory]

[ QUOTE ]
Am i winning here 1 out of 3 times?


[/ QUOTE ]you only need to win something like 22% to break even.
i dont mean to be such a nit, but you have a huge problem if you are look at a pot that already contains 320 or whatever, somebody bets 150 and you considering a call, thinking "am i good 1 outta 3?"
winning 1 time in 4 will be a profit.
PS i check the turn all day. too much action on that board and you aint got much.