Unlucky or outplayed? (long rambling post....sorry)

[jester710]

I would say my skill level is intermediate at 7 stud; I know I'm no expert, but I usually dominate the 5/10 games, especially shorthanded. The past week, however, I've been getting killed, and mostly by the same guy. Thing is, I can't tell if he's just on a lucky streak or if he's outplaying me (by playing me rather than his cards).

It's 5/10 at Absolute, sometimes heads-up but mostly with anywhere from 1 to 3 other players besides the two of us. I watch him play most every hand, usually coming in for a raise. I sit tight and wait for good hands (at least a 3 flush with high cards, or a low pair with live cards).

I know enough about his play that he only raises with super-strong hands (i.e., rolled up trips or aces in the hole) or complete bluffs; he'll wait till 5th or so to raise with a big split pair. So when I have a split pair of 8s and he raises with an ace showing, I'm pretty confident I have the best hand. I usually reraise and he keeps capping until I lose my nerve and check-call, only to find out that he made his pair of aces on 7th. I've also seen him cap with a gutshot against my aces up; he made his straight on 7th, taking down the pot.

I've literally only won a couple of hands against him; he either always starts out with big hands (he's had rolled-up trips at least 5 times against me, while I haven't had any yet) or sucks out on me. I'm fairly confident that he's just running good while I've gone cold, but I've recently begun to wonder if he's outplaying me by pushing me around and allowing himself to outdraw me. Any thoughts or suggestions would be greatly appreciated, as would any advice as to how to counter this type of play.

[bigredlemon]

The tone of your post sounds to me like you believe you should be winning against him but are dismayed by the fact that you are not, and want our assurance that he is just lucky. Consider if it makes more sense that his river card was a card that he started with, as he might have shuffled his down cards.

As for capping with just split eights... I'm not a big stud high player but it doesn't sound like something I would do all that often, if ever.

[jester710]

This is online, so I can see exactly what cards he got in what order. Also, I don't recommend capping with split eights either (and I don't do it against anyone else), but as I mentioned, when he raises with an ace showing, that almost always means he doesn't have anything.

[Bartholow]

Most of the online sites allow you to shuffle your down cards. Absolute doesn't?

[jester710]

Not to my knowledge, no. Even if they do, this guy isn't, unless he shuffles them so his straights and pairs aren't in order.

[BeerMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
Not to my knowledge, no. Even if they do, this guy isn't, unless he shuffles them so his straights and pairs aren't in order.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, you should find this out.

Secondly, it sounds like this whole thing is personal. Poker should be about winning $$, not about being pissed off about suckouts, or beating someone into oblivion.

Thirdly, your opponent seems fairly tricky and aggressive.

Fourth, you seem to underestimate how much variance is involved in poker. I would imagine heads up poker may have even more variance.

Fifth, The fact that you think he is hitting so many river cards leads me to believe that this website, just like all of the other websites allows you to shuffle your cards. Thus, making you believe your opponent is fishier than he is. When using shuffle, it shuffles randomly, so sometimes the cards are shuffled, other times they are not.

[jester710]

1. It is NOT possible to shuffle the cards at Absolute. I contacted the website about this, and they confirmed it. The order I see them in is the order they came in; hence, the suckouts on 7th are indeed suckouts on 7th.

2. I am well aware of the variance in poker, especially shorthanded. I play almost exclusively shorthanded. I've just never had this kind of swing against a single player, especially one that seemed like a fish to me.

3. I can't say that it's definitely not personal; it may or may not be. However, my primary concern is to win whenever I sit down at the table. That's why I posted this question. I kept sitting at the table with this guy, thinking he'd be easy money once his hot streak wore off, and I kept getting cleaned out. So here recently I've been wondering if I was wrong about him being a fish, and maybe I'm the sucker at the table. I just wanted to know if anyone else had any thoughts on it either way. If people think he's on a hot streak, I'll keep playing him, but if they think he's a shark, then I'll pick a softer game.

[BeerMoney]

If he keeps sucking out, why would you think he's a better player?

[jester710]

That's what I kept telling myself when I was first playing him, that he's lucky and I'm the better player. However, I realize that that's a psychological trap in poker, to think that when you win it's because you're good and when you lose it's because the other guy was lucky. I still think that I'm the better player, I just wanted unbiased opinions as to whether or not I was fooling myself.

[Bartholow]

It's impossible to tell without some specific hands. Could be you are playing a little too tight in these short games, or could be variance. Actually, more likely you are playing too passive... Hard to really say though.