Big pot and I raise with one overcard and backdoors.

cmwck · #1 08-04-2005, 12:32 AM

UTG = unknown
UTG+2 = loose passive
CO = tight aggressive
Button = loose passive
Blinds = unknown

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (6 max, 10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls, 2 folds, CO calls, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises.....

Here's the raise. The pot is big, and every person who folds gives my weak draw an extra chance of winning. My raise also has a chance of getting the pre-flop raiser to fold AK.

Thoughts?

dealer_toe · #2 08-04-2005, 12:40 AM

I don't really like it that much. I don't like the CC w/ KJs with only one player CC infront of you. Raising your weak draw doesn't really free up any outs.

And you don't have a read on UTG to know if he will fold AK.

#3 08-04-2005, 09:46 AM

Fold. You're not shutting out flush draws and looking for runner runner for your own flush draw. Also, looks like you may be dominated if a J or a K spikes anyway. If you really want to play this, wait till the turn to see if a diamond hits, then you can give the field two BB's cause utg will be leading again. or if there's no diamond you can fold. are you planning to fold to a reraise by the utg on the flop?

SeaEagle · #4 08-04-2005, 10:06 AM

With 13.5sbs in the pot, you would need about about 3 outs to call a bet, or 6 outs to call 2 bets. I would give you a little more than 3 outs, so your raise needs to buy you about 3 outs in order to break even.

In this hand, I don't see how you can buy more than 2 outs. About the only hand you can fold that buys you outs is AK and that only buys you the 2 remaining Ks. And since your hand value is primarily from draws, you really don't want to ruin your implied odds by knocking out weak hands.

I like your thought process of considering a raise here, but I don't think you are getting the value from a raise that you need to make it good.

W. Deranged · #5 08-04-2005, 10:10 AM

I don't think you can predict your equity being high enough on average to make this play. You have a maximum of 7.5 outs, but this depends on your outs clearing move being totally successful and none of your outs being tied up by the flop bettor. Outs clearing in big pots on the flop is kind of a dangerous game because there are definitely times when it doesn't work it all an you get yourself in way too deep. Players call two cold on the flop fairly freely.

I would tend to save this move for situations where you have other very certain outs (the classic example is a gutshot in addition to the backdoor and overcards), where you have nut outs to fall back on in addition to the speculative outs you are trying to clean up.

hicherbie · #6 08-04-2005, 10:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is big, and every person who folds gives my weak draw an extra chance of winning. My raise also has a chance of getting the pre-flop raiser to fold AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

getting people to fold does not strengthen your backdoors, it improves your king outs. i think calling in this spot is fine.

SeaEagle · #7 08-04-2005, 10:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You have a maximum of 7.5 outs

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm only counting 1.5 for each of the draws and 3 for the Ks, for a total of 6. What did I miss?

W. Deranged · #8 08-04-2005, 10:34 AM

Maximum is an extremely, extremely generous term... we might back into a J as a good card on rare occassions. (I guess the max is really more like 9, then).

You're right, though. The J's usually aren't good and the K's are dirty. I like 5 or so as a more reflective number.

Having a gutshot and two clean overcards would really help us here...

cmwck · #9 08-04-2005, 04:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
With 13.5sbs in the pot, you would need about about 3 outs to call a bet, or 6 outs to call 2 bets. I would give you a little more than 3 outs, so your raise needs to buy you about 3 outs in order to break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since I'm calling anyway, this move invests one extra bet in order to win 13.5, thus I'm getting 13.5:1 odds on this move, so I figure it doesn't have to work often at all in order to be worth it. Is this thinking wrong?

W. Deranged · #10 08-04-2005, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With 13.5sbs in the pot, you would need about about 3 outs to call a bet, or 6 outs to call 2 bets. I would give you a little more than 3 outs, so your raise needs to buy you about 3 outs in order to break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since I'm calling anyway, this move invests one extra bet in order to win 13.5, thus I'm getting 13.5:1 odds on this move, so I figure it doesn't have to work often at all in order to be worth it. Is this thinking wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't really work.

You have to think of it like this:

If you call, a certain number of people will enter behind you (probably more) and you will have expectation of e(u).

If you raise, a (likely smaller) number of people will enter behind you, and you will have (hopefully bigger) expectation of e(r).

For an outs-clearing raise to be worth it, you need to increase your expectation by more than the cost of the bet:

e(r) - e(u) > 1 SB

Here, one clean out is going to be worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 13.5*(1/47) in expecation or something slightly under 1/3 of a small bet. So, I think it's better to say we'll need to clean up 3 outs or more on average to make this worthwhile.

You are not betting one to win 13.5; you are betting one to win the difference in expectation between raising and not raising .

If you think of it this way, it's going to have to work a whole lot in order for it to be right.

I would also seriously think about why you have to be calling. What if it gets raised behind you? Are your effective odds really that big?