How viable is the betting strategy I am thinking of using on the NFL?

[Daliman]

Ok, my thought is I will get an account at pinnacle, and ONLY bet home dogs, Wong teasers,(where I can capture the 3 and 7 on the teaser), and any possible covariance parlay bets,(reduced chances of this at Pinnacle, as they don't allow parlays on same game when spread is over 10.). I will bet as many or few as some up per week, and will bet 10% for 1 bet for the week, and escalate 5% per bet for that week, so if I have 3 bets for the week, I am betting 20% of my Sports betting BR that week at 6.67% each game. If this account were to go broke, I would not re-fund it, and it will be more for fun, experimentation, and interest than making huge $$$, which is why I am using a pretty aggressive bet size; I want each game to matter.

Thoughts? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[tech]

My thoughts:

(1) Pinnacle is probably the worst possible book to choose for this (Oly would be bad too). They have the sharpest lines in the business. If you are going to be playing only dogs, you want to play at a square book (i.e., one that has bad lines for favorite bettors and good lines for dog bettors).

(2) If it's just for fun, sure. But remember, even if all these bets are +EV, your edge will be pretty thin (like 54/46). This isn't like poker where you can get a huge edge. That's why if you bet a large amount per game (and 6% of your bankroll is large by anyone's standards), you can simply run into a couple of unlucky weeks and really hammer your roll.

(3) With that said, I think you have the right idea in general about how to get started.

Good luck.

[Daliman]

TY for your response. What would be the best book for "square" lines then, and how much does the -105 line pinnacle deals mitigate this? ( I realize -105 will not be a factor in teasers.)

[craig r]

Bodog and Bowmans "double deal" lines. So, as long as you stay under their radar you can easily get a half point to a full point better on a lot of games. But, once they mark you as a "sharp" (I don't know how much you will be wagering), they will switch you to the "sharp" line.

craig

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
What would be the best book for "square" lines then, and how much does the -105 line pinnacle deals mitigate this?

[/ QUOTE ]

The -105 is worth about 1% on average, although you won't always be able to get reduced juice on the side you want. Most point values in the NFL are worth more than 1%, so generally speaking you will gain more by having better lines than by having reduced juice.

As for books, Bodog and Bowmans have square lines if you can avoid getting switched to the sharp ones as Craig said. VIP and WWTS aren't too bad either if you are staying with the big books. Skybook's lines aren't too terrible and the free half point is nice (although the $500 limit on the free half point sucks). Some people here use sportsbook.com. They have square lines for sure, but I have heard of problems with them occasionally so I have never used them personally.

[arod4276]

Excellent advice so far from all posters... The best dog book around is sports interaction fwiw..arod4276

[primetime32]

as a general rule if you are seriously thinking about making money you should have at least 3 or 4 sports book accounts.

Only using one book is like limiting yourself to one specific table at party poker whenever you play online.