Commerce 9/18: 77

jason_t · #1 07-21-2005, 07:25 AM

First hand at table. No read on villain.

Preflop: I am BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG+2 limps, Button raises, I call.

Flop: (6.33 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
I check, UTG+2 checks, Button checks.

Turn: (3.16 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
I bet, UTG+2 folds, Button calls.

River: (5.16 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
I bet, Button raises, I....

toss · #2 07-21-2005, 07:29 AM

I don't think villain hit his straight. If he had QJ he'd usually bet the flop, but I don't know him. Did he river an 8? Nevertheless I'd fold because his river bet doesn't make much sense to me. Is this a weak fold?

Edit: Maybe villain is a weak player and has 88?

flytrap · #3 07-21-2005, 07:33 AM

If he's bluffing, I would think he'd raise the turn instead, when he still has a chance to improve. He will know you're psychologically involved in the hand by the river, so raising you there likely means you are beat. The pot isn't really that big, so I just fold and mutter about my draw missing or something. Also, he could have a big hand on the flop, people that play live often like to get cute with their big hands, even stuff like an overpair that is pretty vulnerable.
I think the better play is to just check and call, as it's likely you're ahead, but probably won't get called by a worse hand. He might call with AK, but your bet on the river definately has -ev. And he's not folding anything better.
By checking he might bet his ak, or whatever hand he may have, and you lose only 1 bet if behind, and gain a bet if ahead.

Jake (The Snake) · #4 07-21-2005, 07:35 AM

It's hard to tell without a read but I think you could have check called the river to induce a bluff. He could call with overcards but it's probably unlikely. Besides that, there are very few hands he might call you with that you beat. Maybe a small pp but then he might not raise preflop. I doubt you are getting a better hand to fold. Getting raised leaves you with a tough spot.

As played, I fold because QJ, 88, and other FPS hands make sense here. Pot isn't very big.

thejameser · #5 07-21-2005, 08:42 AM

i call. you are most probably beat. if it was online to an unknown i may call but would likely fold. live(ESPECIALLY the first hand), i call just to create a bit of a loose impression and the illusion of action. it may cost you one more bet now but it may pay off in your ability to trap mr. button or another observant opponent later in the session. you may play looser than i do so this is not as big a factor or there may not be many "thinking" players in the game; if that is the case, save the BB and fold. of course i am responding in the context of the texture of the live games inwhich i play. yours may be different and may require a different strategy, so adjust accordingly.

sy_or_bust · #6 07-21-2005, 08:55 AM

The river bet is good. I agree with not wanting to fold your first hand on the river in this spot, but I think you're beat to QJ or the rare set. In any case, you need to catch a pure bluff almost 15% of the time here, a figure I suspect you may approach but likely not enough to be +EV. I'd decide on my desired table image right there and make the appropriate play.

W. Deranged · #7 07-21-2005, 09:28 AM

Add AA to the list of FPS hands...

Getting 8 to 1 or so and beating only a pure bluff raise, I think a fold is in order. This may be one of those hands where it becomes clear you should have called two orbits later, but with no read at all I just don't think this is 11% or better to be a bluff here on average (though I've never played in California!)

I'd be very wary of folding my next hand to a river raise. You may need to do a little image building following this fold, but this situation is bad enough that I think the cost of the image building will be less than the cost of the bet here.

cnfuzzd · #8 07-21-2005, 09:33 AM

something no one has mentioned is that if he IS bluffing, you want to encourage him to do so more later in the session, rather than pick it off in this particular situation...

peace

john nickle

Jake (The Snake) · #9 07-21-2005, 09:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]

The river bet is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not convinced of this. I did my own EV analysis for this hand with what I thought were generously skewed numbers towards betting and found that check/calling was slightly preferable. What percent of the time do you think villain will:

a. fold
b. call with a better hand
c. call with a worse hand
d. raise

SippinSoma · #10 07-21-2005, 10:59 AM

Remind myself that I have 3rd pair and fold. Button's range of hands of wide. What hands improve to second best on that river? Does AK raise this river? Oh yeah, the pot is small. I think your only hope here is that your opponent is capable of 3rd-level thinking here with overcards.