triple draw question

[Brian Yarger]

I've been playing a little triple draw the last week or so, and I have a question about a situation that has come up a couple times.

I'm heads up in position with one draw to go with something like a J7432. My opponent draws one. I know my Jack is a favorite over his draw, but I feel like it might be worth breaking the Jack, since I'm likely drawing smoother (from action leading up to this) than him, and if I hit a better hand (5/6/8) I can bet it on the river and possibly win another BB, versus the Jack where I can't bet it, but might have to call a bet.

Are the implied odds here good enough to give up some of my advantage to get a possible bet on the end (or even raise his bet if I hit a good card)?

According to some quick simulations, if he's drawing to a rough 8 I might be a 70/30 fav with the Jack and a 65/35 fav drawing to the wheel. That is from twodimes.net with a specific hand, so it might be worse than that in the more general case.

[timprov]

In a large pot you should tend to keep the jack, in a small pot drop it. Most of the time your better chance of winning the pot with the jack is more valuable than the extra bet.

[Brian Yarger]

Yeah, that's what I figured. I think this question comes from my last session where I couldn't win a pot when staying pat as a favorite on the last draw.

If nothing else, breaking the Jack occaisonally in small headsup pots might be a good way to vary your game without giving up too much EV.

Thanks for the advice!

[MarkGritter]

[ QUOTE ]
In a large pot you should tend to keep the jack, in a small pot drop it. Most of the time your better chance of winning the pot with the jack is more valuable than the extra bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can work out where this point is for a specific matchup (and then average over all weighted matchups if you come up with a good way of doing so!)

Say you have J7432 vs. K8732 (ignoring previous draws.)

You have 0.555 pot equity by drawing one, or 0.548 equity by standing pat. In this case drawing is strictly better! (Adding in some discards might swing things more one way or the other.)

With J7632 vs. 8752x, you have 0.581 equity by standing pat, 0.543 by drawing. If you draw and value bet a 9 or better (and you opponent calls with a J or better--- presumably the pot is small so he doesn't feel obligated to catch your bluffs):

4/43 you get a 4; your opponent call the extra bet with 3469 TJ (20/42).

3/43 you get a 5; your opponent calls 21/42.

3/43 you get an 8; your opponent wins with 34 (7/42), calls and loses with 69TJ (15/42).

4/43 you get a 9; your opponent wins with 346 (10/42), calls and loses with 9TJ (11/42).

So the expected value of value betting is 4/43*20/42 + 3/43*21/42 + 3/43*8/42 + 4/43*1/42 = 0.095 big bets.

0.543 * pot + 0.095 > 0.581 * pot only if pot < 2.5 big bets.

So in this particular case "small" is 2.5 bets. If there are three big bets or more (the common case) you are better off holding on to the J.

[lighterjobs]

[ QUOTE ]
In a large pot you should tend to keep the jack, in a small pot drop it. Most of the time your better chance of winning the pot with the jack is more valuable than the extra bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

even in a large pot heads up and your opponent draws one, you would break a smooth jack? it seems like the value bet on the river would be pretty meager compared to the rest of the pot, so why not stand pat?

[timprov]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In a large pot you should tend to keep the jack, in a small pot drop it. Most of the time your better chance of winning the pot with the jack is more valuable than the extra bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

even in a large pot heads up and your opponent draws one, you would break a smooth jack? it seems like the value bet on the river would be pretty meager compared to the rest of the pot, so why not stand pat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Er, yes? Reread what you quoted?

Smooth or rough will hardly ever matter at showdown with any hand worse than a 9.

[lighterjobs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In a large pot you should tend to keep the jack, in a small pot drop it. Most of the time your better chance of winning the pot with the jack is more valuable than the extra bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

even in a large pot heads up and your opponent draws one, you would break a smooth jack? it seems like the value bet on the river would be pretty meager compared to the rest of the pot, so why not stand pat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Er, yes? Reread what you quoted?

Smooth or rough will hardly ever matter at showdown with any hand worse than a 9.

[/ QUOTE ]

oops, i thought i read draw in a big pot, and stand pat in a small pot. my fault.