Not a question of IF but WHEN...

Harv72b · #1 07-20-2005, 04:32 PM

I feel like this should have been an easy fold at some point, but where? MP1 is a LAGtastic dolt with zero postflop skills, who absolutely loves to bluff; flop, turn, river, scare card, brick, it doesn't matter. I've been isolating on him a lot, so my 3-bet preflop won't gain as much respect as it should. CO is way loose, VPIP > 60 over 150+ hands, but is not a total idiot postflop. He is capable of folding crap at some point in the hand. SB I only have ~30 hands on, but he has seemed very TAG up to this point.

Regarding MP1's turn bet: As much as he likes to bluff, I would've been worried if he hadn't bet the turn when SB checked it. His bet there could mean anything down to and including jack high. I thought about raising to try & isolate again, but CO's flop call/cap worried me--it didn't necessarily mean a set or straight, but it meant he had enough of a hand that he probably wasn't folding before showdown. Note that "enough of a hand" could mean top pair.

Enough excuses...tell me how dumb I am. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB caps, 1 fold, UTG folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (18 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, MP1 calls, Hero raises, CO calls, SB 3-bets, MP1 calls, Hero calls, CO caps, SB calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (17 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, CO calls, SB calls.

River: (21 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, CO calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 25 BB

baronzeus · #2 07-20-2005, 04:33 PM

I drop it on the turn.

hicherbie · #3 07-20-2005, 04:38 PM

the answer should be the turn. but im not nearly good enough for that one. i let it go to the ace when i see all the callers.

sy_or_bust · #4 07-20-2005, 04:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: (17 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, CO calls, SB calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need a confident read on MP1's straight to drop this on the turn getting an immediate 18:1 on an overpair. If you have it, you must fold, because you're dead and it may be raised behind you. Once you call, the river sucks even more but it's still really hard to fold. I wouldn't feel badly about showing down this hand in a huge pot, but surely you could fold the turn and not feel awful about it.

krimson · #5 07-20-2005, 04:40 PM

I agree with baron, drop at the Turn. MP1 coming alive here is the nail in the coffin.

shant · #6 07-20-2005, 04:50 PM

If after that flop action MP1 decides to bluff into the three of you, congratulations to him because he's getting me to fold.

Harv72b · #7 07-20-2005, 06:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You need a confident read on MP1's straight to drop this on the turn getting an immediate 18:1 on an overpair. If you have it, you must fold, because you're dead and it may be raised behind you. Once you call, the river sucks even more but it's still really hard to fold. I wouldn't feel badly about showing down this hand in a huge pot, but surely you could fold the turn and not feel awful about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

If CO had raised the turn I was dropping it there regardless of what the other players did. Well, maybe if they both folded, but even then...

I just hated this hand because every fiber of my being told me I was drawing to (at most) 2 outs from the get-go. But I just couldn't hit the "fold" button anyway. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

FWIW, SB did indeed have the rockets, MP1 made two pair with 47s (yes), and CO was holding the bottom end of the straight with 43s (uh huh). I was left with a very expensive 4th-best hand.

callmedonnie · #8 07-20-2005, 06:30 PM

I probably fold turn. Even though the action slowed down a lot there, I say sb has two pair. he's scard of that straight on the turn. CO maybe has a smaller pocket pair than yours? Not sure though. Tough spot.

oreogod · #9 07-20-2005, 06:47 PM

Yeah, taking in all the action, you are so dead on that turn. Tagish SB, capping pre, then 3-betting the flop...its not AK or AQ hes doing that with. You'd be lucky if hes doing it with JJ, but when he goes into calldown, he probably cant fold his over pair (KK or AA probably).

Also, MP1 cant be that much of an idiot to think all of u would fold to his turn bet bluff.

Harv72b · #10 07-20-2005, 06:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Also, MP1 cant be that much of an idiot to think all of u would fold to his turn bet bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

About an orbit earlier, he had capped the turn & called a river 3-bet with K high (no draw, ace showing). He can indeed be that much of an idiot. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]