What's The Play Here?

sthief09 · #1 07-17-2005, 06:54 PM

turning stone 15/30. opponent is a very young kid. he sat down with like $200 or $300 and was playing very conservatively and scared until he started winning a bit. since then he's loosened up a bit, and he showed down 53s limping in LP after 3 or 4 limpers. I'd say he'd fit the profile of a Party 3/6 TAG who beats the game for a decent rate but is probably too tight and too passive in general.

so I raise UTG with AJs, he cold calls me on the button, and the blinds fold

the dealer is the same one who was dealing when he sat down, so he's been there less than a half hour. if I had to guess a range for him to call me it would be maybe 77, probably 88-99, maybe TT, and probably not JJ. maybe AJo/KQo, probably AJs/KQs, almost definitely AQo, maybe AQs. I doubt he's calling anything worse. I don't think he has it in him to cold call me with AK or a big pair. I haven't done anything specatular since he's sat down.

the flop comes KQTr. I bet and he calls.

he doesn't have 99-77. he could have JJ but I think he's probably read some books that say to 3-bet that. he could have AQ. he could have KQ/TT though I'd suspect he'd raise the flop "to test out the waters." AJ I think he'd probably slowplay. so I'd say he has AQo a lot, AJs pretty often, and sometimes KQs/TT

the turn comes a K, making the board QTKK

what's the plan? I _______, and ________ if he ______, and then _______ the river....

also realize that he's sophisticated enough to be considering what I'm folding.

soweak. · #2 07-17-2005, 07:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I _______, and ________ if he ______, and then _______ the river....

[/ QUOTE ]

I check/raise the turn , and call if he 3-bets , and then check/call the river

if it goes check check on turn, V-bet the river and go with read if raised.

DemonDeac · #3 07-17-2005, 07:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]

what's the plan? I _______, and ________ if he ______, and then _______ the river....

[/ QUOTE ]

bet, 3-bet, raises

river: check/call if he caps. lead if he just calls

cold_cash · #4 07-17-2005, 07:16 PM

The way I see it, if you bet and he raises the best you can do is split.

If you think he'll call you down w/ AQ then I guess bet the turn, call a raise, check/call the river, and hope for the chop.

If you think he's capable of folding AQ how about just check-calling all the way?

I don't think check-raising is good because he could easily 3-bet, and when he does you won't know if you're chopping or losing.

Matt R. · #5 07-17-2005, 07:18 PM

I bet the turn, call a raise, and check/call the river. I bet the river if he just calls the turn. I feel like anything trickier than this could get you into trouble. What sways my decision into this passive line is your read that "he's sophisticated enough to consider what you're folding". I think he could easily raise the turn with AJ, since you thought he would slowplay this, or AQ trying to snatch the pot from you if he thinks you're scared of the king. I'm not sure how confident you are that he'd raise the flop with KQ or TT, but I would think it's very possible he has these holdings. So, you may be drawing dead, but you can't really distinguish this from a bluff or AJ without putting a lot of bets in. That's why I go with a more passive line.

shant · #6 07-17-2005, 07:19 PM

This is really interesting. I think the proper thing to do, would be to check-raise the turn, and fold if he 3-bets. I don't know if I could do that in the middle of it, but when stepping back from the hand, it seems like anything he 3-bets with has you in a lot of trouble.

If he 3-bets, TT is a definite possibility, and all the Kx hands that are in coldcalling range are full, except for maybe KJs, which should be afraid of QQ or AK from you and won't 3-bet the turn.

The only thing I just thought of is the small chance he also has AJ, or if he mixed it up and called with AK preflop, so maybe calling down after being 3-bet is correct. Either way, I think checkraising is better because it is going to be hard to bet/3-bet the turn.

cold_cash · #7 07-17-2005, 07:23 PM

I think looking for a way to get multiple bets in on the turn is a pretty big mistake.

How good are we going to feel if we get a ton of action?

Shillx · #8 07-17-2005, 07:24 PM

It is pretty natural to check-raise a full house (KQ or KT for example) in this spot since you don't fear giving a free card to a straight draw. If the guy has a jack for example, you just assume let him hit it when he is drawing dead. I would check/raise here and insta muck if he 3-bets. He has to have a full house if he does 3-bet and you would be drawing dead if that is the case. The only problem comes in if he is good enough to recognize this and just call the turn check/raise (and go for a river raise with the nuts). I don't think that this is the case against this guy though and will 3-bet the rocks here everytime.

Brad

shant · #9 07-17-2005, 07:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think looking for a way to get multiple bets in on the turn is a pretty big mistake.

How good are we going to feel if we get a ton of action?

[/ QUOTE ]
That's why I posted a line where we get an extra BB when we're ahead, and get out when we're behind. I originally thought to fold if he 3-bets the checkraise, but I wasn't sure if it was right, so I talked things out and didn't edit my post.

Maybe you meant to reply to the guy who said bet-3bet and call down if capped? I thought I was being pretty conservative.

Edit: I just saw your other post in this thread, and I agree that folding to the 3-bet after being checkraised isn't a sure thing because of chop possibilities, so maybe bet-call, check-call is better.

cold_cash · #10 07-17-2005, 07:34 PM

I think I misunderstood the last sentence in your post.

It sounded like you wanted to check-raise because you didn't think we could pull off a bet/3-bet.

(In other words I thought you were trying to figure out the most efficient way to stuff in multiple bets. If that's not what you mean I apologize.)