Raising for information and value here? Cappuccino?

[TheRapist99]

I'm playing some .50/1 6-max bc Empire just gave me $10 free.

Villain here I don't know too well since I've only been here a few orbits. He doesn't seem awful or too donkish. Probably a losing player but not a huge fish. I'm just gonna type this out and type out my thought process, am I giving this guy too much credit?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Getting 3-bet here isn't pleasant.

Flop: (12 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

OK so he leads into me and 3-bets, I have a vulnerable TPTK. I make this raise 10 out of 10 times, but after I get 3-bet again, I'm thinking he's probably got an overpair 80% of the time here.

Turn: (12 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls, SB folds.

Nice, a brick. I'm still behind probably 80% of the time here, right? I'd give myself 3.5-4 outs to improve so even if I am behind 100% of the time drawing is OK (right?!!)

River: (15 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG folds.

Villain flips over QQ, says "nice suckout" and Lord Var has smiled upon me.

I just want to make sure I have got this thought process right. Too often with a vulnerable hand and someone getting really aggressive do I want to turn into a big wuss.

Final Pot: 17 BB

[MrWookie47]

What portion of the typical 3betting hands are you ahead of on the flop?

[TheRapist99]

[ QUOTE ]
What portion of the typical 3betting hands are you ahead of on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not many!

AA,KK,QQ, JJ all beat me
AK is about it!

[gharp]

I'd play this the same. You're likely behind on the flop, but the pot's big enough to let you draw to two pair or trips on the flop and turn.

Kind of an interesting hand in that you could've left out your whole cards and everyone would probably still know what you and BB had (BB could've had KK too). Lots of nice, pleasant, ABC poker here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[TheRapist99]

So now with that in mind, let me look at it again.

I'm behind on flop probably about 85% of the time, he still might be auto-betting an unimproved AK here. If I raise and get 3-bet I'm behind probably 90-95% of the time.

So maybe the flop raise is a bad move all things considered and something I need to fix with my game. I've still probably got enough outs on the flop to draw, you think?

[MrWookie47]

That's exactly what I'm thinking.

Losing to:
AA - 3 hands
KK - 6 hands
QQ - 6 hands
JJ - 3 hands
TT - 3 hands
21 hands

Beating:
AK - 12 hands
AQs - 3 hands
15 total hands

I'd say you're behind about 60% of the time, not 85%, but you still shouldn't raise.

[gharp]

I'd still be likely to raise. The pot's pretty big -- do you want SB sticking around to beat you with K2o?

Raising gives 8:1 to SB -- it's not quite enough to call with a gutshot (random Q) or naked K. I'd take the chance and try to get him out of the hand.

[BluEsiNsOuL]

I will definitely raise here too. It is the cheapest way to see his strength. I will play the same.

[MrWookie47]

If we got the opportunity to blast UTG and SB with the raise, I'd like it more. Here, we only have a shot at nailing one of them. Any of the hands that are beating us are probably very willing to 3bet, so we're probably only going to end up paying too much to draw with minimal gain.

[TheRapist99]

[ QUOTE ]

I'd say you're behind about 60% of the time, not 85%, but you still shouldn't raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

My mistake, that's just me being brain dead. Of course there are more combinations to make AK than an overpair.