Questionable play from home tourney last night

[coyote]

I posted about this last night, but I didn't get much response. I've thought it over alot today, last night I thought it was a horrible play, but now I think it's just borderline. So I need help with if I'm doing my math correctly.

Here goes:

I play in a weekly home tourney, usually 20-30 players. Last night was only 14. To set up the situation, we're down to 4 players, 3 get paid: (50 - 100 - 200 structure)

I'm in second chip position UTG (T4500-5000 approx). blinds are 300-600. Chip leader is in the BB. He's got me covered by 10x probably. Other two players are getting short stacked. I pick up KQo. I raise to T1800. 2 folds, and the BB says he can push all in and there is no way I can call because were on the bubble and the other two players are short stacks. He pushes. I go into the tank, because he's pretty much right. I fold, he shows AJo. Good fold. (friggin dealer decided to rabbit hunt the board and it came KQxTQ) so that sucked!

I think If I was going to play that hand, I should have raised all in preflop, that way the BB can't put me in a bad spot with a reraise. But that would be stupid too, because I'm in good position to make the money. So, really it should have been a fold. Couple hands later I had to fold KJs in a blind to the big stacks raise. (note, the KQ hand was the first time the bigstack really started pushing, and I it caught me by surprise.)

Anyway, here is my big question: one of the short stacks busts out, we're in the money. I'm still in 2nd. I'm UTG with T2000, blinds 400-800. Shortstack is in SB with T525.
BB is bigstack with approx T18000.

I pick up A2o and push. BB goes into the tank, flips up his 89o. (we allow teahousing heads up) I flip up my A. He thinks some more and calls, hit's an 8 on the flop and I'm done. In hindsight I think my flipping the A might have hurt. I think he pretty much figured when I only showed one card that I only had one over card.

Now, why I made that push I don't really know. All I had to do was fold and the SB was going to have to call his last 125 into the pot. I've been feeling like this was a horrible play. Everyone else said the same.

But now, I'm trying to figure out my reasoning. At that point the SB and BB have random hands. For all I know the SB will double up and then be on the button the next hand, while I'll be in the BB and facing an automatic all in raise from the bigstack. If I don't pick up a hand there, I may have to fold and now I'm posting another 400 in the small blind facing another raise from the bigstack. Of course the short stack would be in the BB with a stack of T1050 (if he doubled through the previous hand) He can't fold to the Bigstack's UTG raise, so I could fold there as well. Now I'm down to 800 and hoping the shortstack doesn't double through again.

Perhaps the most relevant question is this: How do you assign odds on the SB doubling up on the BB if I fold, with 2 random hands? Because if he doesn't bust, then I'm in a very precarious position.

Is it worth folding the Ace for a 50% shot that the SB busts? This is where I'm not very good, the math needed to determine tourney equity or whatever.

I guess if I fold, 50% of the time SB busts and I win $100.
50% of the time he doubles through, and now it's 60/40 that I win 2nd.
I'm not taking in to account any odds that I end up winning, they seem pretty slight due to stack sizes.

If I raise all in, I'm 60% to double up, 40% to bust out in 3rd. If I double up I gotta figure I'm about 95% to take second.

50%*100 + 50%*(60%*100 + 40%*50) = $90 (folding)

40%*50 + 60%*(95%*100 + 5%*50) = $78.50 (raising all in)

Does this math make any sense? I pretty much made it up

What do you guys think about the situation?

(note I just ran pokerstove and I was actually about 55:45 on my all in raise, not 60:40, but I'm not going back into my figures)

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
I posted about this last night, but I didn't get much response. I've thought it over alot today, last night I thought it was a horrible play, but now I think it's just borderline. So I need help with if I'm doing my math correctly.

Here goes:

I play in a weekly home tourney, usually 20-30 players. Last night was only 14. To set up the situation, we're down to 4 players, 3 get paid: (50 - 100 - 200 structure)

1.


I'm in second chip position UTG (T4500-5000 approx). blinds are 300-600. Chip leader is in the BB. He's got me covered by 10x probably. Other two players are getting short stacked. I pick up KQo. I raise to T1800. 2 folds, and the BB says he can push all in and there is no way I can call because were on the bubble and the other two players are short stacks. He pushes. I go into the tank, because he's pretty much right. I fold, he shows AJo. Good fold. (friggin dealer decided to rabbit hunt the board and it came KQxTQ) so that sucked!


I think If I was going to play that hand, I should have raised all in preflop, that way the BB can't put me in a bad spot with a reraise. But that would be stupid too, because I'm in good position to make the money. So, really it should have been a fold. Couple hands later I had to fold KJs in a blind to the big stacks raise. (note, the KQ hand was the first time the bigstack really started pushing, and I it caught me by surprise.)


2.
Anyway, here is my big question: one of the short stacks busts out, we're in the money. I'm still in 2nd. I'm UTG with T2000, blinds 400-800. Shortstack is in SB with T525.
BB is bigstack with approx T18000.

I pick up A2o and push. BB goes into the tank, flips up his 89o. (we allow teahousing heads up) I flip up my A. He thinks some more and calls, hit's an 8 on the flop and I'm done. In hindsight I think my flipping the A might have hurt. I think he pretty much figured when I only showed one card that I only had one over card.

Now, why I made that push I don't really know. All I had to do was fold and the SB was going to have to call his last 125 into the pot. I've been feeling like this was a horrible play. Everyone else said the same.

But now, I'm trying to figure out my reasoning. At that point the SB and BB have random hands. For all I know the SB will double up and then be on the button the next hand, while I'll be in the BB and facing an automatic all in raise from the bigstack. If I don't pick up a hand there, I may have to fold and now I'm posting another 400 in the small blind facing another raise from the bigstack. Of course the short stack would be in the BB with a stack of T1050 (if he doubled through the previous hand) He can't fold to the Bigstack's UTG raise, so I could fold there as well. Now I'm down to 800 and hoping the shortstack doesn't double through again.

Perhaps the most relevant question is this: How do you assign odds on the SB doubling up on the BB if I fold, with 2 random hands? Because if he doesn't bust, then I'm in a very precarious position.

Is it worth folding the Ace for a 50% shot that the SB busts? This is where I'm not very good, the math needed to determine tourney equity or whatever.

I guess if I fold, 50% of the time SB busts and I win $100.
50% of the time he doubles through, and now it's 60/40 that I win 2nd.
I'm not taking in to account any odds that I end up winning, they seem pretty slight due to stack sizes.

If I raise all in, I'm 60% to double up, 40% to bust out in 3rd. If I double up I gotta figure I'm about 95% to take second.

50%*100 + 50%*(60%*100 + 40%*50) = $90 (folding)

40%*50 + 60%*(95%*100 + 5%*50) = $78.50 (raising all in)

Does this math make any sense? I pretty much made it up

What do you guys think about the situation?

(note I just ran pokerstove and I was actually about 55:45 on my all in raise, not 60:40, but I'm not going back into my figures)

[/ QUOTE ]



I'm going to try to respond to both parts of your post. In 1. this is exactly why I would fold KQ here, your logic is about right. You have something like 7 BBs, which isn't a ton, but enough to leave everyone else to their own devices, and just as importantly you're UTG. Easy fold. If you simply must play this hand for read dependent reasons it's an instapush. By read dependent I mean that you think no one will call and you can steal. If I were him in that situation w/ AJ and his ginormous stack as you say, I would have called too, but whatever.


2. You should have been pushing a while ago, like when you had <= 5 BBs. But even though you didn't, I don't think this ace is strong enough here to go all in. I think your best move probably is to fold and hope the other player goes out. It's still a very weak ace, and I would say the odds are against the other small stack outlasting you.

The big stack makes a fine call w/ his 89, I dont think I would even think about it, as your all in was obviously an attempt to take it down w/o action, and even if you didn't show him your ace as long as he has two live cards taking someone out (more like ending the misery) is huge at this point.

I don't know how the stacks got so rediculously uneven, it sounds like people were playing weak tight, and you should have capitalized on it by pushing a while ago.

[coyote]

Is this situation that cut and dried that there's only been one response??

[Nothinghead]

[ QUOTE ]
In hindsight I think my flipping the A might have hurt. I think he pretty much figured when I only showed one card that I only had one over card.

[/ QUOTE ]

so, um, flip 'em both up next time?

[coyote]

to confirm that I only had one over? No I don't think so.

I shouldn't have flipped either over probably. But that's not the big question.

The big question is how bad a play was it to push from UTG, given the situation and the stack sizes.