AA hand

[SA125]

Live 10-20

Villain in this hand is the BB. He plays a lot and well and has been bouncing around the room all day looking for good games. I played 15-30 with him a few hours earlier. I'm sure he views me as tight.

I have 2 red A's and raise from EMP, folded to him and he calls from the BB.

Flop K 7 2 with 2 spades. Check/call.

Turn 5x. Check/call.

River Spade rag. He checks. Who wants to bet and fold to a raise?

[TripleH68]

I think bet/call is the best option here, especially if villain has seen you bet/fold earlier in the session.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

you don't say much in terms of reads other than you view him as good.

in any case, you can't give good players free showdowns if they're going to try to checkcall you down with KQ or KJ or whatever, otherwise they'll be even more liberal in calling your flop and turn bets with weaker made hands expecing free showdowns from you.

bet. call a raise too if you think he's that type of player.

[TStoneMBD]

bet and call a raise. when a rag hits the river on a board like this it increases the probability that a river checkraise is a bluff. most players would checkraise the turn instead of the river with 2 pair. as an added incentive to call, i have also seen people play KQ like this.

[SA125]

Like CDC mentioned, it's tough posting live hands and getting the right reads down to describe the exact feel. Online it's the guy is "VPIP##/###, etc." and the guy's hardlined for the right play.

This guy was a strong player and if he has a K, he either bets out or c/r's the flop. He doesn't check/call. I knew that. He also aint fishily check/calling down bottom pair. If he doesn't have a draw, he'd make a play on the flop and release on the turn to pressure. Or make the play and hold on if he has one.

Anyway, he checks the river and I lay down my red A's. He semi-slaps down his 64s in disgust for having missed a bet. MHING.

Then he starts saying how his A's got cracked too, yada-yada, how he picked up a str draw on the turn too, yada, etc. It's a show of respect because he's remembering now that my King Primo got river cracked by his longshot BS. I just shrug.

He finally relaxes, looks at me and says "I should have bet into you. You have to call." I say "I have too." Hand played. Mutual respect. A's cracked by 64s. No big deal. Sometimes there's a reason why when you ask yourself "why does this good player keep calling me".

[TStoneMBD]

didnt see the 3rd spade in the hand so that changes my comment a bit but i still call a checkraise

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
didnt see the 3rd spade in the hand so that changes my comment a bit but i still call a checkraise

[/ QUOTE ]

TStone, I respect your opinion. This is an area I struggle with because I find value betting the river is almost always -EV.

It's simple. For every time I call down a c/r and lose, I have to win 2 pots on the river to break even, and 3 pots on the river to be a winner. You have to win many marginal river bets to counter balance the amount of c/r's you call and lose too. What's the math?

Let's take 10 river bets. You bet all 10. 3 of them you're c/r'd and lose. You're a 1 BB winner 7-6. Great. If you only win 60%, win 6 and lose 4, you're a 2 BB loser. 8-6. Unless you fold some. Getting the exact amount down is impossible.

You have to go by the feel of hand by hand. Value betting the river and getting raised is far from an easy spot to be +EV.

[NDHand]

It's those times you get check-raised, call and win that pay off.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]
It's those times you get check-raised, call and win that pay off.

[/ QUOTE ]

True, but this ain't one of those situations.

A strong player who check-raises this board isn't doing it if he can't beat kings (the obvious high-card hand). Of the many, Many, MANY ways to do that on this board, exactly one hand ties you and none lose to you. In this situation, a check-raise is death unless it's a stone bluff, and, as SA125 points out, that's just not going to happen enough to make it worth risking the check-raise.

If nothing else, the only obvious draw on the flop hit on the river. Given that you've been called all the way down, isn't it safe to assume that that's what he's got at least 1/3 of the time?