Turn OESD - What's your line?

[speirs]

From a good session yesterday.

I have been at this table for 30 minutes and am catching some decent cards. Doing a lot of raising, blind stealing, pounding the table. I just won 3 pots in a row.

I'm in MP and open-raise with KQo. The button (weak tight as far as I can tell) cold calls and we see a heads-up flop.

34J rainbow. I bet, he raises, I pause for a while and call. Turn: T.

What's your line?

[sekrah]

Your flop call is marginal at best.. It's likely your behind and your abt 7:1 to make a pair on the turn in a very small pot, and he could already have K-J or Q-J. Nevermind that leak though.

You should have check-called on the turn. Betting there is bad EV. Tight-weak already represented he had a hand on the the flop (He has A-J, K-J, Q-J, or J-10). He's definently not folding if he's holding one of those 4 hands (very likely), and it's certaintly possible he's raising.

[gasoltub]

The most likely hand for him is top pair with a good kicker. Likely AJ. But he could also have JJ if he's to weak to reraise preflop with that, or even QQ,KK,AA if he's sneaky enough.
If I believe he would only call with top pair I would bet on the turn as a semi-bluff, and if I thought he would raise again it would clearly be best to check and call his bet.
But since your read on him is weak/tight you might even have a tiny chance to get him to fold so I would probably bet.
If the worst happens and he raises the turn you would have to call, given the pot odds.

check/fold river unimproved and bet it if you get your straight.

[Nick C]

I would check and call.

However, if you think Villain would raise, say, pocket sevens on the flop but will then release them if you bet again on the turn or checkraise, then I guess making a play would become something to consider.

A hand like AJ seems pretty likely to me here, though, and I don't think he'll fold that.

[mdob]

I'd just check the turn. He's raising a set or JT and calling with top pair. Your read doesn't seem strong enough to think he'd fold a top pair, bad kicker hand (and would he raise with that?).

[mdob]

[ QUOTE ]
Your flop call is marginal at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has two overcards and a BDSD. If we say 1.5 outs for each of the three (which is pretty conservative heads up) he needs ~9.5 to 1. He's getting 8.5 to 1 immediate odds, and can easily make up the rest with implied odds.

[jskills]

Check / call the turn.

Check / fold the river unless you hit.

[gasoltub]

[ QUOTE ]
The most likely hand for him is top pair with a good kicker. Likely AJ. But he could also have JJ if he's to weak to reraise preflop with that, or even QQ,KK,AA if he's sneaky enough.
If I believe he would only call with top pair I would bet on the turn as a semi-bluff, and if I thought he would raise again it would clearly be best to check and call his bet.
But since your read on him is weak/tight you might even have a tiny chance to get him to fold so I would probably bet.
If the worst happens and he raises the turn you would have to call, given the pot odds.

check/fold river unimproved and bet it if you get your straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I noticed that most replies in this thread advocates a check/call on the turn. And as I wrote above, I would most likely have bet it. Would that be a very bad move, or just slightly bad? Or does it matter in this situation?
SSH says something like, "If you are going to call a bet it's better to bet yourself instead". I can't find the page now so it could have some requirements that I forgot. (gotta read it again)

My reasoning is that it's more likely that he has top pair than a set, and being weak/tight he's probably unlikely to raise top pair again if you bet into him on the turn.

comments please...

[blackize]

The problem with betting out the turn is that we still havent narrowed the hand range for the villain. His cold call preflop tells us nothing. His raise on the flop could mean TPGK, a set, or even an overpair. While it is generally true that if you are going to call a bet it is probably better to bet yourself, in this case you are risking being raised again. Despite the fact that he is weaktight he is still likely to raise TPGK, a set, or an overpair(read: any of his likely holdings)

Edit: yet we have a strong draw plus overs. Our hand is one we would rather not put 2 bets in with if we can avoid it, and in this case we can.

[wildwood]

I notice a couple things going on here. One is when you hesistated after he raised the flop; he thinks he is probably ahead with TP.(all hesistations at the table are usually noted) When the T comes on the turn, I don't think even a weak tight would fold a jack to a bet here especially after the flop action. Betting the oesd on the turn has very little chance of folding him out imo, therefore a semibluff would be incorrect. Better to check/call. Also with your table image (you're on a rush and looking like a LAG), you're more likely to get called/raised. fwiw