EV question

[iceman5]

This is a real hand, but the question is a general one.
$2/$4NL at Party.

1 limper and I raise to $16 on the button with QQ. Only the BB calls. We both start with $400

The pot is $40. The flop comes T65. He leads out for $24. Based on previous play I put him on AT/KT. He has very few outs so I decide to let him bet for me and I just call.

Pot is now $88. The turn is a 4 (T65). All rainbow. He bets $40. OK, heres the question. Is it correct to just call again if Im pretty sure Im ahead and I doubt he will call a large raise? I put him on AT/KT but he actually had 33.

He has 10 outs to the straight or a set. I dont know if he would call a large raise but I doubt it so based on the theory of poker, is it correct to call here?

He did river a 3 and bet $90 which I called so I know what happens if he hits. I lose the $88 pot plus $40 plus another $90 for a total of $218 1 time out of 4.4 (10 outs is 3.4-1 right?)

If he misses, he probably checks so I win the $88 pot plus the $40 he just bet for a total of $128 3.4 times out of 4.4 times

$128 x 3.4= $435
-$218 x 1 = -$218

$435-$218=$217
$217/4.4= +$49 EV (rounded)

Is this anywhere near correct?
And even if it is, is this still a horrible reason to call him down? I mean, If I raise his flop bet, I win the hand, but the EV calculations look like calling him down is fine too.

[xorbie]

I'm confused. If villain is folding to a big raise, and not putting more money in unless he improves, a raise should be made 100% of the time.

[coltrane]

[ QUOTE ]

I dont know if he would call a large raise but I doubt it


[/ QUOTE ]


iceman,


your EV math is correct.....but purely mathematically speaking, you didn't examine the EV of a big turn raise, which - according to your above statement - would be the highest EV because it would win you the whole pot the most number of times......HOWEVER, that doesn't take into account the number of times you're already behind and get reraised, and practically speaking, I'd have played the hand exactly like you did.....the pot is small, and you kept it that way......one thing I'll often do on the turn when I'm not sure where I'm at is mini-raise.....it's not the highest EV yielding play (obviously, making a good read and then calling or raising the correct amount accordingly is better), but often without a read it's a great blocking bet because it'll earn you a river check a good number of times.....

[barongreenback]

Are you saying you put money in on the river when you lose but don't get any more when you win? How, then, is seeing the river useful if you think you're best on the turn?

James

[iceman5]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying you put money in on the river when you lose but don't get any more when you win? How, then, is seeing the river useful if you think you're best on the turn?

James

[/ QUOTE ]

Well if I was 100% sure that i was ahead, then it probably WOULD be better to raise, but I can never be 100% sure.

He could have a set, AA or KK.....or i could raise the flop and he could reraise me and then I would probably have to fold. I havent played with the guy enough to know if he would play AT that strong, so I though calling him down and keeping the pot semi small may be better.

I thought about min raising the flop and checking behind on the turn, but decided not to. Im not saying my line is the best line, Im mainly asking about the EV of calling a guy down when your 75% sure youre ahead and that he will keep betting the hand for you.

I had a similar hand not too long ago playing $5/$10. I raised with KK and the caller led out. He also had 33. The flop was something like T86. I only called and the turn was a 3, so I lost a bundle when if I had raised the flop Im sure he wouldve folded.

After playing these hands it seems that a raise is better but Im wondering if it only seems better because both guys caught miracles.

Also, I dodnt say he wouldnt put anymore money in if he didnt improve. If he had AT, he may have bet the river and I wouldve won alot more than if I raised him off the hand....and even with 33, he may have fired out a 3rd barrell hoping he could fold me since i wasnt showing any strenght. I didnt include that in the EV calcs because I dont know how often he would do it.

[longwyfrmlbc]

I like a small turn raise, more than a min raise but not a raise designed to blow someone off A10, for instance. My reasons:

1. Villain will almost certainly call a turn raise with TPTK, or perhaps a mid pair / JJ if it is a harmless looking undercard.

2. After calling such a raise, the Villain is usually committed to a river value bet on a non-scare card. You can safely fold to a reraised turn, a CR'ed river and/or big lead on the river with only one pair.

3. This line also keeps mid pairs in the hand who may believe you are making a move with high cards, as you only smooth called the flop.

I believe this line generates highest EV because you get an extra bet in on the turn all the time, which makes up for the times he hits his outs and beats you. I also like taking the initiative. You have position with a premium hand, why let him have the initiative.


Just my thoughts Iceman, BTW I have been following these pots both here and on BTP, so if you reference any of those posts in your response(I.E. the lead-in-with-set problem you are trying to solve) I will know what you are talking about.

[barongreenback]

[ QUOTE ]
I can never be 100% sure

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that, for an EV calc to be of any use you have to make an attempt to include these uncertainties or at least state your assumptions if you leave them out.
[ QUOTE ]
he may have fired out a 3rd barrell hoping he could fold me since i wasnt showing any strenght. I didnt include that in the EV calcs because I dont know how often he would do it.

[/ QUOTE ]
It might seem that by not including this you are avoiding guesses and therefore making your calc more accurate but in effect you are including it - you're assuming he bets 0% of the time. Do you think this is more likely to be correct than using a different figure e.g. 5%. If so then use 0%, if not use something else. Either way you're using your judgement and affecting the result - it can't be avoided.

James