Donkey Puzzle

naphand · #1 07-03-2005, 06:45 AM

BB is loose and reasonably aggressive, somewhat tricky and has won a few big pots (V$IP 45+ PFR 15+). He is often the bettor on the Flop and likely stealing a number of them. Hard to put on anything. Button is a recent addition and could be very loose and quite aggressive. My image is aggressive but probably too tight (poor cards).

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Naphand is CO with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Naphand raises, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Naphand raises, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (6.20 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Naphand [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

The board is getting ugly. Button PF/Flop cold-call probably means a draw, but my read is not be reliable. BB's action is typical of a hand that does not want to give a free card or a bluff or a bet/3-bet attempt.

Calling feels weak and lets Button off the hook. Raising costs the same as calling to SD, and Button would still have odds to call a raise correctly plus I fold bluffs and get 3-bet by made hands. I just hate calling down here. All options looks bad.

rtrombone · #2 07-03-2005, 06:51 AM

My default is to raise and fold to a 3-bet.

mperich · #3 07-03-2005, 06:58 AM

Tough spot, your right it looks bad no matter what you do. Folding is just too weak IMO. I have a feeling BB is going to 3bet a majority of the time we raise, and we will have almost no equity. If he 3bets do you fold? If so, and you don't think he is tricky enough to bet->3bet bluff, then raise/fold might be a line I take here. Yah, actually I think I like raise, fold to a 3bet here. And if they just coldcall I also bet the river for value.

-Mike

Justin A · #4 07-03-2005, 06:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
My default is to raise and fold to a 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

imitation · #5 07-03-2005, 07:57 AM

I would call the turn. River would depend on who if button was still around and what hit. But I could go for a raise or call, but I think it's probably a call if BB bets, but I don't think he will a good amount of time so I'll bet when he checks.

helpmeout · #6 07-03-2005, 07:57 AM

call and hope he doesnt have a 7

naphand · #7 07-03-2005, 10:41 AM

This is a play-off between the 2 other players:

(i) Calling a potential bluffer/underpair/trips who will may bet again on the River (Turn unraised) and certainly 3-bet his trips (the least likely holding). He could also be on a draw and bashing the cards due to the bluff opportunity into overs/overpair, it is unlikely he believes I have any of the board cards.

(ii) Button is likely on a draw will have odds to call a raise with any 6 or any flush draw. If I just call Button is getting 8:1 with some implied odds and can call 5 outers like any pair with kicker above the board (providing he believes BB does not have a 7) as well as any two overs. Calling means Button can correctly play a lot more hands.

I am estimating BB's Flop bet has a 25-33% chance of being a bluff. He bets any part of the board, although TP is less likely, certainly hands like Kh4h. When he does not 3-bet the Flop he wants to CR the Turn (big hand), was bluffing and cannot fold it without getting caught with his trousers down, or has a hand like the Kh4h or some other redraw and wants to see the Turn. The most likely action for TP is to bet-call and CR a safe Turn IMO, or even just call down.

Given the range of hands and LAGginess of BB folding is almost out of the question and I am increasingly leaning to raising. A raise basically says trips or overpair (due to my PFR), if he has a 7 or a straight he knows he is ahead and will either 3-bet or call and CR the River. Anything less (such as any 6 or 45 or Kh4h) and he calls, he is not maniacal or super-aggro. So folding to a 3-bet fairly certainly with only 2-outs should be straightforward. If he calls and CR River he gets an extra bet from me - or is anyone advocating checking behind on the River?

Calling costs the same but allows Button a cheap draw with a lot of garbage hands. Of course, if he overcalls and misses on the River I get an extra BB. Can anyone demonstrate if this extra BB/risk is a payoff in this spot?

donger · #8 07-03-2005, 04:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a play-off between the 2 other players:

(i) Calling a potential bluffer/underpair/trips who will may bet again on the River (Turn unraised) and certainly 3-bet his trips (the least likely holding). He could also be on a draw and bashing the cards due to the bluff opportunity into overs/overpair, it is unlikely he believes I have any of the board cards.

(ii) Button is likely on a draw will have odds to call a raise with any 6 or any flush draw. If I just call Button is getting 8:1 with some implied odds and can call 5 outers like any pair with kicker above the board (providing he believes BB does not have a 7) as well as any two overs. Calling means Button can correctly play a lot more hands.

I am estimating BB's Flop bet has a 25-33% chance of being a bluff. He bets any part of the board, although TP is less likely, certainly hands like Kh4h. When he does not 3-bet the Flop he wants to CR the Turn (big hand), was bluffing and cannot fold it without getting caught with his trousers down, or has a hand like the Kh4h or some other redraw and wants to see the Turn. The most likely action for TP is to bet-call and CR a safe Turn IMO, or even just call down.

Given the range of hands and LAGginess of BB folding is almost out of the question and I am increasingly leaning to raising. A raise basically says trips or overpair (due to my PFR), if he has a 7 or a straight he knows he is ahead and will either 3-bet or call and CR the River. Anything less (such as any 6 or 45 or Kh4h) and he calls, he is not maniacal or super-aggro. So folding to a 3-bet fairly certainly with only 2-outs should be straightforward. If he calls and CR River he gets an extra bet from me - or is anyone advocating checking behind on the River?

Calling costs the same but allows Button a cheap draw with a lot of garbage hands. Of course, if he overcalls and misses on the River I get an extra BB. Can anyone demonstrate if this extra BB/risk is a payoff in this spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming the BB doesn't have a 7 AND Button has a hand like KQ or AK, Button's equity is ~11% (from 9-14% depending on BB's holding). He's going to be getting about the right price from the pot to call here.

Since he's correct to call, folding him has to be the right choice. Dropping Button shoots your equity from about 66% to about 80%, and if you're ahead, you collect Button's overcall from the BB instead. You may not eke the river bluff out of the BB, but with a > 10BB pot, who cares? He may even be betting a weak hand like A6o hoping to induce you to fold overcards, and you can value bet a safe river and make the bet that way.

mtdoak · #9 07-03-2005, 07:27 PM

I like a raise here. And a call down if 3 bet. Unless the button 3bets....then I may fold.