Stud/8 River question

[PokrLikeItsProse]

I don't have a hand converter, but the gist of it was that the villain brought in, I completed with one other caller who dropped out on fourth. I bet out on every street from 4th to 7th and villain called, never raising until 7th, which I called.

On 7th, I held:
(A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) - A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] -- (6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])
My opponent showed:
(-- --) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (--)

Dead cards:
3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

My opponent was not very good and possibly a bit tilted hitting trips on fifth to beat his two pair on fourth. I reasoned that the likeliest hand for my opponent to hold was a low draw and worst case scenario was that he was chasing a straight draw as well.

I figured that he would call me on the river with any two pair, and that he would raise me with his better lows, a straight, or trip sixes.

If we assume that he had 4-5 in the hole, then--

Good cards for me:
The case six and 2 kings, 2 threes, 3 fours which would make him two pair.

Neutral cards for me:
1 ace and 4 eights which would give him a low for a split and 3 nines, 4 tens, 4 jacks, and 4 queens which he could not call a bet with.

bad cards for me:
3 twos and 3 sevens which would give him a straight and a low for a scoop.

But, he could also have had a gutshot draw, which gave him less bad cards for me. Or, he could have had trip sixes on fifth and made a boat on seventh(but he would have raised on fifth or sixth if that were true). He may have also started with two diamonds in the hole and made a miracle flush. And he also might not have had a straight draw so that there was no card that could scoop for him and only several cards that would split. He was sufficiently bad enough to have started out with buried tens and called me down. And I wouldn't have put it past him to raise on 7th with kings up.

Given all this data, was my bet on 7th reasonable?

By the way, he showed his hole cards as J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], taking high with a boat and no qualifying low.

[bigredlemon]

I'd bet this river everytime. You get paid off more often than you get scooped.

[Spladle Master]

Easy river bet. Don't be results-oriented.

[PokrLikeItsProse]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy river bet. Don't be results-oriented.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't being results oriented. If he held 45 and I bet, throwing out neutral cases, I get called 5 times by a worse hand and I get raised 1 times by a worse hand and 6 times by a better hand.

So, if I knew he had 45, I shouldn't bet, right? But the other possible hands are what made a bet reasonable, right?

I felt safe in betting because he was a bad player. Is it still a good value bet against a skillful player?